French developers’ housing-start outlook weakens again in October

French property developers became more pessimistic about future housing starts in October, according to Insee’s quarterly survey. The balance of opinion on housing starts over the next three months fell to -26.8 in the fourth quarter, from -19.5 in the third quarter. The measure is an opinion balance, not a forecasted number of homes or a count of building permits. A more negative balance indicates that pessimistic answers outweighed optimistic ones among surveyed developers.

The weakness was most pronounced for housing intended for sale. That segment’s starts outlook balance declined to -41 in October from -35 in July, moving further below its long-run average of -18. The balance for rental housing, mainly social housing, fell to -8 from 1 and moved below its long-run average of 1. The release thus describes deterioration for both categories, while showing a steeper negative balance for homes intended to be sold.

Developers’ assessment of demand for new homes also weakened. The demand balance fell to -42.6 in the fourth quarter from -37.2 in the third quarter, its lowest point in two years and well below the long-run average of -13. The survey does not report completed transactions or the number of buyers. It records developers’ views of demand addressed to them, which can shift with financing, pricing and other conditions without translating immediately into recorded starts.

The share of developers considering new programs for study by architects or engineering consultancies edged down to 52%, from 53% in July. Insee said the proportion had been stable for three quarters before this slight fall and moved further from its long-run average of 62%. This measure concerns intentions to consider a program for study, not a final investment decision, building authorization or construction start.

Other responses point to financing concerns. The balance on expected changes in clients’ financing means fell to -39 from -35 in July, compared with a long-run average of -21. Developers’ balance on the past evolution of buyers’ personal contributions declined to -26 from -21 and was below its long-run average of -18. These balances summarize opinions about financing conditions; they do not quantify loan approvals, mortgage rates, household deposits or the number of buyers unable to proceed.

The published series places the fourth-quarter reading within a longer downturn in survey assessments. The balance for starts outlook was -12.8 in the fourth quarter of 2025, -13.5 in the second quarter of 2026 and -19.5 in the third quarter before reaching -26.8. The housing-demand balance was -29.1 in the fourth quarter of 2025 and -34 in the second quarter of 2026. The series can help track sentiment across quarters, but the values are not percentages or units of housing.

The October survey placed the housing-starts outlook balance at -26.8, down from -19.5 in July, while the new-housing demand balance fell to -42.6 from -37.2. Within starts, the balance for homes intended for sale declined to -41 and the rental-housing balance to -8. Only 52% of developers were considering new programs for study, against a long-run average of 62%. The figures show worsening survey sentiment across demand and planned-supply indicators.