French manufacturers report firmer investment outlook balances for 2026 and 2027

French manufacturers reported a stronger opinion balance on the annual investment trend for 2026 and a first balance for 2027 in Insee’s October quarterly business survey. The annual-investment table, explicitly expressed as a percentage of responses forming an opinion balance, showed 13 for the 2026 trend, compared with 6 in the April survey. For the 2027 trend, the first reading was 19. These values summarize survey answers; they are not rates of investment growth or confirmed company spending.

The change in investment intentions came alongside a less optimistic view of demand over the next three months. The balance on expected overall demand slipped to 5 in October from 6 in July, while expected foreign demand fell to 7 from 12. Both remained above their respective long-run averages of 2 and 4. For past demand, the overall balance rose to 9 from 7 and foreign demand reached 15, its highest level since October 2022, according to Insee.

The balance on expected investment over the next three months edged up to 19 from 18 in July and remained above its long-run average of 15. Manufacturers reported production bottlenecks at 42%, unchanged from July but well above the long-run average of 25%. Capacity utilization was 82%, compared with a long-run average of 83%, and the balance on judgments about production capacity stood at -2. These measures distinguish current constraints from plans for future investment.

Hiring difficulties were reported by 38% of manufacturers in October, the same share as in July and above the survey’s long-run average of 33%. At the same time, the balance on general wage prospects declined to -58 from -54. Insee’s release presents these as survey answers, not payroll totals or measured wage changes. A share reporting recruitment difficulties can be read alongside capacity bottlenecks, but the figures do not prove that one caused the other.

Manufacturers said selling prices had risen by an average 0.1% over the preceding three months, much less than the 1.5% reported in July. They expected a 0.2% increase over the next three months, compared with 0.3% in July. These reported price changes are distinct from opinion balances elsewhere in the survey. The reported cash-position balance weakened to -13 from -9 in July, against a long-run average of -8.

The October questionnaire includes quarterly questions in addition to the regular monthly industrial survey. Insee notes that responses to those questions should be compared with the previous quarterly survey, three months earlier, rather than with the prior month. The agency also began seasonal adjustment of quarterly series on expected investment changes in this publication. The historical estimates may therefore differ from values readers saw before that adjustment.

In the annual-investment table, the opinion-balance reading for the 2026 trend was 13 for manufacturing overall. The 2027 reading was 19, the first survey assessment for that target year. Across industry groups, the corresponding 2026 balances were 4 for food manufacturing, 19 for capital goods, 39 for transport equipment and 3 for other industries; the 2027 readings were 13, 34, 34 and 6. These are percentages of responses forming opinion balances, not investment growth rates.