NewsFAO forecasts 2.979 billion tonnes of global cereal output in 2026
FAO’s October 2 forecast kept 2026 global cereal output at 2.979 billion tonnes, 2.1% below the 2025 record but still the second-highest on record.
Event / data period: 2026
Published: · Updated:
IllustrationThe market brief shows divergent crop revisions: the wheat production forecast rose by 3.2 million tonnes to 813.9 million tonnes. The coarse-grain forecast fell by 3.3 million tonnes to 1.612 billion tonnes, mainly reflecting weaker maize prospects.
FAO forecasts world cereal stocks at 950 million tonnes at the close of seasons in 2027 and trade at 505.8 million tonnes in 2026/27. These are the agency’s supply-and-demand projections, not observed output or a Newsverum forecast.
Data
FAO 2026/27 cereal outlook
Global production, utilization, stock and trade projections.
- World cereal production forecast
- 2,979 million tonnes
- 2026 · Forecast
- World wheat production forecast
- 813.9 million tonnes
- 2026 · Forecast
- World coarse-grain production forecast
- 1,612 million tonnes
- 2026 · Forecast
- Global cereal trade forecast, 2026/27
- 505.8 million tonnes
- 2026-07 — 2027-06 · Forecast
Methodology
Projections are taken from FAO’s October 2, 2026 Cereal Supply and Demand Brief; they are not observed outcomes.
Updated:
Subjects and places
Subject proposals
- agricultureSuggested
- Preserved editorial category/topic; broad candidate onlywww.fao.org ↗