FAO projects Egypt’s 2026 wheat output at 10.2 million tonnes

An FAO estimate relayed by Egypt’s State Information Service on 23 August 2026 put the country’s 2026 wheat output at 10.2 million tonnes. The forecast places Egypt first among Arab countries, ahead of estimates of five million tonnes each for Morocco and Iraq, 3.5 million for Algeria, 1.4 million for Tunisia and 1.1 million for Saudi Arabia. All figures in that comparison should be read as season estimates reported in the same release, not as final measured harvests.

The announcement gave Egypt’s planted wheat area as 3.76 million feddans, an increase of 600,000 feddans from the previous season. It said 2026 production was expected to be about 7% above its average, with expansion of cultivated area identified as the main driver. A larger area can raise total output even if yield per unit of land is unchanged. The release does not provide yield per hectare, regional water use, weather conditions or a production-cost series, so the output forecast alone cannot establish a change in farm productivity.

The release contains two separate descriptions of domestic production. The FAO estimate is 10.2 million tonnes, while the Egyptian government’s information service also says local output is expected to exceed 10 million tonnes in 2026, up 6.5% from 9.4 million in 2025. The announcement does not explain the scope or calculation difference between this domestic comparison and the 10.2 million-tonne FAO forecast. It is therefore clearer to preserve them as distinct estimates reported by the source than to combine them into one final production figure.

At the close of the procurement season, government purchases were reported at about five million tonnes, the highest amount recorded by the state procurement system. This measures wheat delivered to and bought through the government channel; it is not the total amount produced across the country. The release does not say how much each farmer sold to the state, placed on the private market, or kept for household or farm use. The procurement total should not be substituted for the production forecast.

The release also said wheat imports were expected to fall to 12.5 million tonnes from around 13.2 million the previous year. This points in the same direction as the production estimate, but import volumes need to be read alongside output, stocks, consumption, quality requirements and export flows. The announcement does not state the final period-specific import total or how much the import bill changed. It does not provide all the quantities needed to calculate a self-sufficiency rate from the forecast and import expectation alone.

Procurement incentives form another part of the account. The information service reported a government procurement price of 2,500 Egyptian pounds per ardeb and listed varieties including Misr 3, Misr 4, Giza 171, Sakha 95 and 96, Seds 14 and 15, Beni Suef 5 and 7, and Sohag 5 and 6. The ardeb is a local volume or weight unit, and no conversion is used here. The quoted price is an offered procurement incentive; net farm income would also depend on input, transport and yield costs.

The useful context is to keep each figure tied to the question it answers: the FAO forecast estimates potential output; planted area records land use; procurement measures purchases through the state channel; and the import estimate describes external supply. Forecasts can be revised near the end of a season, and final production may differ. Published harvest, regional yield, stock and trade data would allow a firmer assessment of food supply. This announcement alone does not establish future prices or show that Egypt has ended its reliance on imported wheat.