U.S. commercial red-meat production fell 4% in September

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s October 22 Livestock Slaughter report estimated commercial red-meat production at 4.3227 billion pounds in September 2026, 96% of the 4.5093 billion pounds produced a year earlier. Beef production was 2.0383 billion pounds, 94% of September 2025; pork was 2.2729 billion pounds, 97%. Veal totaled 1.7 million pounds and lamb and mutton 9.8 million pounds. The 4% decline in the combined total did not represent the same change in every category: the report provides separate production and slaughter figures for beef, pork, veal, and lamb and mutton.

The commercial-production total is broader than federally inspected plants alone. NASS says inspectors from the Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) report daily slaughter counts, live weights and dressed weights from federally inspected plants. NASS combines those data with reports from state-administered non-federally inspected (NFI) plants to estimate total commercial slaughter. Commercial production includes slaughter and meat production at federal and other plants but excludes animals slaughtered on farms for home consumption. Carcass weight is the weight of the chilled carcass after slaughter; it is not the same as the live weight of the animal. This distinction means 4.32 billion pounds should not be described as retail sales or consumer purchases.

Commercial cattle slaughter totaled 2.3029 million head in September, 7% below the 2.4655 million recorded in September 2025. Average live weight for commercially slaughtered cattle was 1,447 pounds, 14 pounds higher than a year earlier. Those measures moved in different directions: fewer cattle were slaughtered while average live weight rose. The hog tally was 10.6398 million head, 97% of the previous year’s 10.9794 million; average live weight increased by one pound to 287. Calf slaughter for veal totaled 7,900 head, down 15%, while average live weight rose eight pounds to 359. Sheep slaughter was 176,000 head, and average live weight was unchanged at 109 pounds.

Production changes should be read alongside slaughter numbers and weights, although the report does not provide a causal analysis of those factors. Beef production fell 6% as cattle slaughter fell 7% and average live weight rose. Pork production declined 3%, as did hog slaughter, while average live weight increased by one pound. Lamb and mutton production and sheep slaughter were both down 5%, with average weight unchanged. Veal production fell 13%, calf slaughter fell 15% and average live weight rose. The figures show that production totals are not simply identical to the number of animals slaughtered; additional analysis would be required to attribute changes to carcass yield, animal composition or plant operations.

The calendar offers a useful check on the year-over-year comparison. Both September 2025 and September 2026 had 22 weekdays, including one holiday, and four Saturdays. The source therefore offers no basis for attributing the production difference between those months simply to a change in the number of workdays. From August 2026 to September, commercial red-meat output rose from 4.0952 billion to 4.3227 billion pounds; NASS reported the September figure as 106% of August. That monthly increase does not change the annual comparison: September production remained 96% of the year-earlier level. The published percentages are computed from unrounded totals, so recalculating them from rounded figures may not reproduce the same result.

Commercial red-meat production for January through September totaled 38.8854 billion pounds, 98% of the 39.753 billion pounds in the same period of 2025. Beef was 18.4067 billion pounds, or 95% of the prior-year period; veal was 14.5 million pounds, or 77%; pork was 20.3715 billion pounds, or 100%; and lamb and mutton was 92.6 million pounds, or 91%. The published 100% for pork is a rounded year-over-year comparison, not a claim that the underlying totals were exactly equal. The nine-month period is different from the single-month estimate and does not forecast output for the rest of the year. Both measures follow the report’s commercial-production definition.

NASS publishes federally inspected production separately from the commercial total. Federally inspected red-meat output was 4.2785 billion pounds in September, below the 4.3227 billion commercial figure because the latter also includes NFI activity. Federal inspection covered 98% of cattle slaughter, 99.5% of hog slaughter and 86.7% of sheep slaughter. NFI plants sell and transport meat only within their state and operate under state inspection; their production is included in commercial totals. The two tables should not be treated as interchangeable. Mobile slaughter units are counted as farm slaughter and excluded from the NFI table.

The report’s methodology combines daily electronic FSIS records with monthly information from NFI plants. NASS says there are about 1,125 federally inspected slaughter plants and about 1,800 NFI facilities, including state-inspected and custom-exempt plants. The agency monitors plant status to prevent duplicate reporting across the two groups. Counts and weights may be revised the following month, often because late reports arrive; revisions are generally below one-half of one percent. The system flags missing reports and unusual values, and may impute live or dressed weights using reports from plants of similar size and location. NASS describes the data as a census of operating plants with no sampling error, while recognizing nonsampling risks such as reporting, recording and processing mistakes. A “D” mark withholds information that could reveal an individual operation; the value remains included in regional and national totals.

These monthly results describe slaughter and meat production; they do not measure demand, retail prices, imports or exports, inventories or farm profitability. NASS defines commercial red meat as carcass weight for beef, veal, pork, and lamb and mutton, excluding condemned carcasses after slaughter. September output fell despite the same number of weekdays as the previous September, while species-specific production and average live weights moved differently. The next monthly publication may include revisions. The 4.3227-billion-pound total is therefore the first published estimate of September commercial production, not a direct count of all meat available in markets or products bought by consumers.

The state table adds context on where reported commercial red-meat production is concentrated. In September 2026, Iowa produced 753.6 million pounds, Nebraska 616.7 million and Kansas 477.4 million. Texas was at 335.0 million pounds, North Carolina at 192.3 million and Colorado at 139.1 million. Compared with a year earlier, Iowa was at 100%, Nebraska 96%, Kansas 106%, Texas 92%, North Carolina 86% and Colorado 78%. These figures describe changes in each state’s total commercial red-meat production, not production of a single species or the output of an individual business. State percentages are also rounded values from the report.

The federally inspected slaughter tables separately list animal classes and regional categories. Cattle are divided into steers, heifers, cows and bulls; hogs into barrows and gilts, sows and boars. Those breakdowns describe the class composition of head counts, not the performance of an individual producer or plant. NASS uses a “D” confidentiality mark when a figure could reveal an individual operation; the animals remain included in regional and national totals. The report can therefore publish broad commercial-production totals and a more detailed federally inspected subset while withholding cells that would disclose local operations.