U.S. feedlot placements hit September low in USDA series

The National Agricultural Statistics Service’s Cattle on Feed report, released October 23, put the October 1 inventory at 11.372 million cattle and calves in U.S. feedlots with capacity for at least 1,000 head and feeding animals for slaughter. That was slightly below 11.418 million on the same date in 2025. The sharper movement was in September inflows and outflows: placements fell to 1.777 million head, the lowest September figure in the series that began in 1996. Marketings of fed cattle for slaughter totaled 1.524 million head, 7% below a year earlier and also the lowest September total in the series.

The report tracks steers and heifers on rations intended to produce a slaughter-market carcass in feedlots at or above the 1,000-head capacity threshold. Animals being “backgrounded only” for later sale as feeders or later placement in another feedlot are excluded from the cattle-on-feed definition. That prevents readers from treating the figure as a count of the entire U.S. cattle herd or every calf on a farm. The October 1 inventory is a snapshot of a specified population on a specified date. September placements and marketings, by contrast, are monthly flows into feedlots and from feedlots to slaughter markets. The indicators have different time frames and population definitions.

September placements were 2.021 million head in 2025 and 1.777 million in 2026, which NASS reported as 88% of the previous year. Net placements were 1.728 million. By weight group, September entries included 360,000 head under 600 pounds, 260,000 at 600–699 pounds, 385,000 at 700–799 pounds, 422,000 at 800–899 pounds, 255,000 at 900–999 pounds and 95,000 at 1,000 pounds or more. The 800–899-pound bracket was the largest single group. The distribution shows that the lower total included cattle across several entry weights, but the report does not identify individual producers’ choices or say when the animals will later be marketed.

Marketings declined from 1.632 million in September 2025 to 1.524 million in September 2026, or 93% of the previous year. In the report’s terminology, marketings are fed cattle shipped from feedlots to slaughter markets. Inventory at the end of September had risen from 11.168 million on September 1 to 11.372 million on October 1, which NASS reported as 102% of the prior month. The combination shows why a low month for placements and marketings must be read alongside the opening inventory and other disappearance. That category includes death loss, movement from feedlots to pasture and transfers to other feedlots; it totaled 49,000 head, 4% below a year earlier.

State tables show that the national pattern was not uniform geographically. Feedlot inventory on October 1 was 905,000 head in Colorado, 98% of a year earlier; 330,000 in Idaho, 96%; and 2.520 million in Texas, 98%. Oklahoma’s 355,000-head inventory was 111% of its year-earlier level. September placements were 490,000 in Nebraska, 84% of the previous year; 130,000 in Colorado, 84%; 420,000 in Kansas, 90%; and 330,000 in Texas, 85%. Arizona’s 19,000 placements were 146% of a year earlier. These examples show why the national 12% placement decline should not be described as an equal drop in every state.

The class data describe the inventory’s composition. Steers and steer calves totaled 7.072 million head on October 1, slightly above 7.063 million a year earlier, and represented 62% of inventory. Heifers and heifer calves totaled 4.300 million, down 1% from 4.355 million and accounting for 38%. Those figures alone do not show that producers are retaining heifers for breeding or starting to rebuild herds. NASS is counting slaughter-market animals in feedlots, not decisions about breeding herds. The class table provides a precise description of the population’s steer and heifer composition.

NASS’s monthly estimates use a survey frame that covers most, but not all, large-capacity feedlots. In January and July, the agency surveys all known U.S. feedlots with capacity of at least 1,000 head. In other months, it surveys known feedlots in 16 states; the agency says those states account for about 98% of cattle on feed in this capacity class. Monthly individual-state estimates are published for 11 states. Data for Illinois, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon and Wyoming feed into the “Other States” category. The Agricultural Statistics Board reviews regional recommendations and analyses, checking state data against each other and the previous month.

The report’s figures are estimates and may be revised. NASS can revise the previous month’s estimates across states when it prepares the current month’s results; February reviews monthly estimates for the prior year and some annual measures from two years earlier. The agency also identifies uncertainty from feedlots outside the monthly survey and nonsampling errors in reporting, recording or processing. Its 24-month reliability table says the average difference between first and latest inventory estimates was 1,000 head, with a range of zero to 20,000. The report is the latest official estimate, not necessarily a final, immutable count. Some state or weight-group cells are withheld as “D” to avoid disclosing individual operations, but those values remain included in national totals.

The October report’s news is that the current feedlot inventory remained close to the year-earlier level while fewer cattle entered and left feedlots in September. Both monthly flows reached September lows in the series, giving a more detailed picture than the inventory figure alone. The report does not forecast prices, consumer demand, future meat production or a supply shortage. Its estimates should be read with the capacity threshold, animal definitions, reference periods and revision policy in view. September placements and September marketings measure different stages of production; neither directly reveals future price movements or the decisions of individual operations.

The weight groups answer a different question from the overall placements total: how many cattle entered feedlots in each live-weight bracket during September. The 422,000 head in the 800–899-pound group and the 95,000 head at 1,000 pounds or more are at different stages of the feeding pipeline; the first is a larger share of the monthly placements flow, while the latter is a smaller group. The classification describes the weight mix of monthly entries. NASS does not report the animals’ birth dates, breeds, whether they crossed state lines or their eventual destination. Drawing conclusions about those details would go beyond the published table.

A “D” mark does not mean a zero or a missing record; NASS withholds a cell when it could disclose information about an individual operation. Some state-level weight-group values may therefore be suppressed even though the total placements figure and national result are published. “X” indicates that a figure is not applicable, while a separate “Y” mark identifies a value below the printed level of precision. Readers should not treat suppressed or blank cells as zero and reconstruct a state total from them. NASS also notes that totals may not exactly equal the sum of displayed rounded subcategories; the published national total should be used.

NASS also reports a reliability measure by comparing first and latest estimates over the prior 24 months. For feedlot inventory, the average difference was 1,000 head and the observed range was zero to 20,000. The agency’s table lists a 0.0% root mean square error for inventory and a 0.1% measure at the 90% confidence level; rounded percentages can mask small differences. For placements, the same table gives a 0.2% root mean square error, a 0.3% 90% confidence measure and an average 2,000-head difference between first and latest estimates. These figures summarize past estimation performance; they are not a separate probability interval for the current month or a forecast of future values.