U.S. milk production rose 2.7% in September as the dairy herd expanded

Milk production across the 24 major dairy states reached 18.724 billion pounds in September, up 2.7% from September 2025, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service report released October 22. NASS counted 9.304 million milk cows in those states, 162,000 more than a year earlier. Production per cow averaged 2,012 pounds for the month, 18 pounds above September 2025. Read together, the three series show that higher output reflected both a larger milking herd and a modest increase in milk per animal.

The report distinguishes its 24-state measure from its estimate for the whole country. The 18.724 billion-pound figure is calculated for the selected states using producer survey information. NASS separately estimated U.S. September production at 19.443 billion pounds, 2.6% above the year-earlier month. The national total incorporates state reports and administrative data. The 2.7% headline rate should therefore not be applied to the U.S. total: the two figures describe different geographic scopes and estimation procedures.

The third-quarter figures show that the monthly gain was part of a wider increase, though the two comparisons cover different periods. U.S. milk production from July through September was estimated at 59.529 billion pounds, 2.3% above the same quarter in 2025. The average number of cows during the quarter was 9.715 million, 172,000 above a year earlier and 39,000 above April through June. Quarterly averages and totals are not interchangeable with September’s single-month count and output. Keeping the reference periods distinct helps avoid turning one monthly report into a claim about a permanent trend.

Production did not move uniformly across the states in NASS’s 24-state table. California was the largest producer in the group at 3.290 billion pounds, while Wisconsin reported 2.782 billion pounds; the California year-over-year change was marked as less than half the displayed unit. Texas output rose to 1.562 billion pounds, up 4.1%. Kansas reached 492 million pounds, up 14.7%. Arizona moved in the other direction: production fell to 350 million pounds, down 4.9%. National growth therefore does not mean that every dairy region expanded at the same rate.

NASS measures two ingredients separately: the number of milk cows and production per cow. In Kansas, the herd rose from 219,000 to 248,000 and output per cow increased from 1,960 to 1,985 pounds; total production was 14.7% higher. Texas had 730,000 cows versus 706,000 and a per-cow measure of 2,140 pounds versus 2,125. Wisconsin’s herd increased from 1.280 million to 1.306 million, while per-cow output rose from 2,105 to 2,130 pounds. Those examples show why a state’s production growth cannot be treated solely as a productivity gain: a larger animal base also raises total volume.

The release also revised August. Production in the 24 major states was updated to 19.304 billion pounds, an increase of 132 million pounds, or 0.7%, from the preliminary estimate issued the previous month. That revision is a reminder that an initial monthly estimate is not necessarily final. Agricultural statistics can change as survey responses are completed and sample estimates are reviewed. When businesses and analysts use a new monthly release, they need to note whether the preceding month has also been revised, instead of comparing the latest observation with an older, unrevised number.

The gap between California and the 24-state total illustrates the weight of the largest dairy centers. California reported 3.290 billion pounds and Wisconsin 2.782 billion; together, the two states accounted for about one-third of production in the selected 24 states. New York reached 1.417 billion pounds and Idaho 1.595 billion. Florida’s 163 million pounds was much smaller, but it remains separately visible in the state table. The difference in scale shows why a state’s output volume and its rate of growth are distinct measures when interpreting the national increase.

The statistical definitions also matter. The monthly count of milk cows in the 24-state table includes dry cows but excludes heifers that have not yet freshened. Milk per cow excludes milk consumed by calves. The national quarterly average and the selected states’ monthly observations use these definitions. NASS also cautions that figures may not add because of rounding. These details become important when comparing the headline measures with other datasets, which may use different definitions of a dairy cow, production period or marketed milk.

NASS’s methodology says monthly estimates combine producer-survey responses, historical trends and, where feasible, state and federal administrative data. Questionnaires are mailed near month-end to collect information for the first day of the month, with telephone follow-up where needed. Cow numbers and production may be revised the following month or quarter and again in February as more administrative data become available. USDA reported a root mean square error of 0.1% for milk-production estimates over the preceding 20 quarters. That statistic reflects past revision performance and helps users assess estimate variability; it is not a guarantee that the current estimate will not change.

The September release is best read through three separate measures: monthly output in the 24 major states rose 2.7%, the U.S. monthly estimate increased 2.6%, and national third-quarter production was up 2.3%. A larger number of cows and a modest increase in production per cow accompanied those gains. The state table shows both expanding and contracting production centers over the same month. Later Milk Production releases and revisions will show how these components change.