Norway rebuilds housing-wealth model using 881,000 sales
A report published by Statistics Norway (SSB) on 15 October details results and methodological changes in a housing-wealth model based on home sales from 2015 to 2024 and used for 2026 tax-card values. After filtering, 881,472 sales entered the model. The country’s 14,101 basic statistical units in 2024 were grouped into 1,272 calculation areas by housing type.
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The revised approach groups smaller basic statistical units rather than relying on municipality borders. A decision-tree algorithm combines areas with similar price patterns, followed by a separate hedonic regression for each area and housing type. In 10-fold cross-validation, mean absolute percentage error was 12.53% for all homes, 18.04% for detached houses and 10.18% for apartments. An estimated 83.07% of values fell within 20% of observed sale prices. These results do not guarantee an individual valuation and depend on the model’s sample and filters.
Data
Model sample and calculation areas
Coverage of the housing-wealth model; sales sample January 2015–November 2024.
| Home sales retained after filtering | 881472 |
| Basic statistical units in 2024 | 14101 |
| Calculation areas, all housing types | 1272 |
| Detached-house calculation areas | 395 |
| Small-house calculation areas | 178 |
| Apartment calculation areas | 699 |
Methodology
Counts are transcribed from SSB report tables about the model sample and the 2024 base-unit count; they are not estimates.
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Cross-validation performance, 2015–2024
Cross-validation performance measures on SSB’s 2015–2024 transaction data; indicator definitions follow the report.
| MAPE, all homes | 12.53 |
| MAPE, detached houses | 18.04 |
| MAPE, small houses | 10.69 |
| MAPE, apartments | 10.18 |
| Median absolute percentage error, all homes | 8.7 |
| Values within 10% of observed price | 55.89 |
| Values within 20% of observed price | 83.07 |
| Values within 50% of observed price | 98.05 |
Methodology
Percentages are transcribed from SSB’s 10-fold cross-validation table. MAPE measures error magnitude; PM10/20/50 are shares of homes whose estimate falls within the corresponding percentage band of the observed sale price.
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Subjects and places
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- EconomySuggested
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- Norway · Place role: Coverage · Place type: Country or area · Location precision: RegionalEvidence
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