Brazil agencies project contrasting regional rainfall under El Niño
A multi-agency outlook dated October 1 points to above-average rainfall in the South and below-average rainfall across much of north-central Brazil in October–December 2026.
Event / data period: 2026-10-01
Published: · Updated:
Brazil’s El Niño Panel, produced by seven federal institutions, published its fourth monthly bulletin on October 1. It reported that Pacific sea-surface anomalies in NOAA’s September 28 bulletin exceeded 2°C and that models indicated the event could persist at least into early 2027.
The October–December seasonal outlook gives a higher probability of above-average rainfall in the South and parts of the Southeast, and below-average rainfall across much of the North and parts of the Center-West and Northeast. Cemaden’s partial September data also classified 197 municipalities as facing severe drought, up from 153 in August. These are institutional outlooks and monitoring classifications.
Data
Indicators in the El Niño Panel
Panel rainfall outlook and Cemaden drought classification.
- Municipalities in severe drought
- 197 count
- 2026-09 · Observed
- Previous-month municipalities in severe drought
- 153 count
- 2026-08 · Observed
- Probability of very strong event
- ≥95 %
- 2026-10 · Forecast
Methodology
Above 95% is the panel’s reported modeled probability for a very strong El Niño; municipality counts are from Cemaden’s partial September monitoring.
Updated:
Subjects and places
Subject proposals
- Weather phenomenaSuggested
- Subject suggested from the title or summary: El Niñowww.gov.br ↗
- EnvironmentSuggested
- Preserved editorial category/topic; broad candidate onlywww.gov.br ↗
Geographic references
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- Brazil · Place role: Coverage · Place type: Country or area · Location precision: RegionalEvidence
- Explicit preserved editorial country/region; no city or national centroid inferredwww.gov.br ↗