WMO sees near-certain El Niño persistence through February 2027
WMO’s August update forecast further El Niño strengthening and a nearly 100% chance that it would persist through February 2027.
Event / data period: 2026-08
Published: · Updated:
The World Meteorological Organization said on 3 September that El Niño was established and expected to become very strong in the coming months. Forecasts from WMO Global Producing Centres assigned a near-100% likelihood that it would persist through February 2027.
The agency said unusually warm tropical Pacific conditions supported the strengthening and that shifts in rainfall and temperature patterns could raise risks of floods, drought and extreme heat. This is a model-based WMO outlook, not a prediction of a specific disaster at a particular location.
Data
Source-reported figure
Measurement or forecast published by the official source.
- WMO forecast likelihood El Niño persists through February 2027
- ≈100 percent
- 2027-02 · Forecast
Methodology
Stores the source-reported value and period without conversion or an independent forecast.
Updated:
Subjects and places
Subject proposals
- Weather phenomenaSuggested
- Subject suggested from the title or summary: El Niñowmo.int ↗
- EnvironmentSuggested
- Preserved editorial category/topic; broad candidate onlywmo.int ↗