French leek output forecast down 13% after summer heat, Agreste says

France’s leek production is forecast at 134,700 tonnes for the 2026–2027 campaign, 19,700 tonnes below the previous season. The agriculture ministry’s statistical service, Agreste, published the estimate on 23 October, using information collected through late September and fixed as of 1 October. It projects output 13% below 2025–2026 and 17% below the average of the five campaigns from 2021–2022 to 2025–2026. Agreste cautions that the projection still needs refinement because the effects of this summer’s heatwaves on the full campaign are difficult to assess at this point. The headline number is therefore a forecast, not a completed national harvest total.

The report attributes the expected reduction principally to yields, describing plant growth as slow or halted after successive summer heat episodes. National planted area is forecast at 5,382 hectares, down 2% from the previous campaign and 1% from the five-campaign average. That smaller area contributes to the outlook, but the forecast’s larger percentage decline in production signals that acreage alone does not explain the projected shortfall. Agreste’s basin table shows declines in every surveyed production basin: the north at 21,000 tonnes, 13% lower year on year; the west at 40,800 tonnes, down 15%; the centre-west at 36,600 tonnes, down 14%; and the south-east at 20,200 tonnes, down 8%. Other basins account for 16,200 tonnes. Together, the rounded estimates equal the France total.

September offers a measure of the pressure late-season crops faced. Tonnage harvested that month is expected to be 28% lower than in September 2025, a month when more substantial volumes ordinarily return to the market. Rainfall returned, but Agreste says it was insufficient to make up the water deficit. Losses were greater on plots without access to irrigation, while dry conditions also favored thrips attacks. The report says leeks could be small, require additional trimming or, in some cases, fail commercial standards. These are reported production and quality risks; the source does not quantify how many farms lacked irrigation, the extent of pest damage or how much output was rejected. It expects the production deficit to remain noticeable through the campaign.

Supply constraints coincided with higher producer prices at the end of summer. The report says leek prices in August were 53% above August 2025 and 49% above the five-year August average for 2021–2025. The elevated level carried into September, when the producer-price index was 53% above September 2025 and 55% above the average for September 2022–2026. The first comparison in the publication’s summary appears to use 2026 as its prior-year reference; the detailed text and chart label compare September 2026 with September 2025. This draft follows the detailed period labels and interprets the quoted percentage as a year-on-year comparison. Agreste notes that prices adjusted progressively during September, so the monthly comparison does not mean every day or transaction was at the same premium.

The campaign’s start had a different balance. May’s relatively wet weather supported the movement of early leek volumes. In June, however, hot temperatures limited consumer interest: average prices for the month were 14% below June 2025 and 17% below the five-year average. In July, limited supply kept prices close to the average of the preceding five campaigns. August then brought a stronger rise as moderate supply met firm demand. The sequence shows why one annual price figure would flatten the market’s changing conditions. Agreste reports monthly producer-price index values on a base of 100 in 2020; these are index comparisons, not absolute prices per kilogram or retail prices. The release supplies a seasonal account but does not identify consumer purchases, individual contracts or margins after production costs.

Trade volumes point to a widening gap in the opening months, but the product definition is broader than leeks alone. From May through August 2026, France exported 3,700 tonnes of leeks and other allium vegetables, 2% less than in the same period of the prior campaign. Imports were 6,900 tonnes, 49% higher. The resulting trade deficit by volume was about 3,200 tonnes, 2,400 tonnes larger year on year. Customs data are used for these comparisons. The figures describe cross-border quantities during four months, not full-year trade, domestic consumption or the amount of French-grown leek available to retailers. Because other alliums are included, they cannot be used as a leek-only import dependency rate.

The national forecast relies on regional samples of quantitative and qualitative observations. The survey covers six regions, grouped into four climate-based production basins, and represented 79% of French leek output in 2025. The report identifies Nord-Pas-de-Calais for the north, Basse-Normandie and Brittany for the west, Centre and Pays-de-la-Loire for the centre-west, and Rhône-Alpes for the south-east, using the pre-2016 22-region classification. For unobserved regions within a surveyed basin, the service extrapolates from the previous campaign’s Annual Agricultural Statistics; it similarly extrapolates non-surveyed basins to reach an estimate for France outside the overseas departments and regions. The method supports a timely forecast, but the national figure is not a census of each producer or field.

Area accounting also differs from a simple count of unique farmland. Agreste defines the reported hectares as developed area, counting a surface each time it is rotated into and harvested for the crop during a campaign. Comparisons should therefore preserve that convention. The campaign runs from May 2026 to April 2027, and the estimate assumes no unusual event changes the remainder of the season. That assumption matters especially in a report that stresses uncertainty: the service says the summer heatwave’s complete effect remains difficult to evaluate. Later observations could refine the production total, basin distribution and price picture. The October release provides a structured snapshot based on data available by early autumn, while explicitly leaving room for revision rather than presenting 134,700 tonnes as settled fact.

For growers and buyers, the report’s central finding is a forecast of sustained tighter availability, with several distinct sources of pressure: a 2% reduction in planted area, heat-damaged growth, persistent water deficit, lower September harvest volume and quality problems affecting size and trimming. The market response is visible in producer-price indexes that rose sharply in August and remained elevated in September, even as June prices had been below their earlier-season comparisons. Trade data show more imports and a slightly lower export volume in the campaign’s first four months, but those allium figures should not be conflated with leek-only supply. Agreste’s data do not measure farm profitability, retail pass-through, irrigation investment or the causal contribution of each stressor. The final harvest and later price releases are needed to test the October outlook.