EPE projects higher oil and net gas output in Brazil’s decadal outlook

Brazil’s Energy Research Office (EPE) presented its outlook for the oil and gas sector over the next decade at the fifth Brazilian Petroleum Conference in Rio de Janeiro, held October 19–21. The agency’s October 22 account said the presentation drew on projections in its Decennial Energy Expansion Plan, or PDE. EPE said oil production could increase by up to 30%, while net natural gas output is expected to grow by about 95%.

These percentages are planning projections for the PDE horizon, not observed production growth or capacity promised by producers. EPE identified pre-salt fields as the main driver for the oil outlook. The phrase “net natural gas production” also matters: gross extraction is not the same as gas available after volumes consumed in processing or reinjected into fields are accounted for. The short conference announcement does not give start- and end-year absolute volumes, so the rates cannot be converted into a specific number of barrels or cubic metres from this release alone.

EPE’s broader energy-supply message is that renewables are expected to remain around half of supply even as demand grows. That outlook places projected growth in oil and gas alongside an expectation that renewable sources retain a major share of Brazil’s energy mix. The agency presents the renewable share as an approximate feature of the decadal outlook, not a precise realized figure for a particular year.

Energy security and the role of geosciences in exploration and production were central themes at the conference. EPE also highlighted natural gas as relevant to supply for industry, agriculture and transport, as well as to cost reduction and investment attraction. That framing makes infrastructure as important as production volumes: gas must move from fields and processing facilities to markets before new output can serve consumers.

EPE listed regulatory differences and improvements to gas evacuation and transport infrastructure among the challenges ahead. The reference to evacuation infrastructure concerns moving production into the transport network, while pipelines and related systems connect it onward to demand. The announcement does not quantify planned investment, project timelines or how much production could be constrained by these bottlenecks.

The 30% and roughly 95% figures should therefore be read as directional indicators within a planning scenario, not guaranteed outcomes. Changes in assumptions, field schedules, regulatory decisions and transport investment can affect actual production. EPE’s conference account puts both the growth outlook and the infrastructure challenge on the record; the detailed scenario tables and annual data in the PDE are needed for a fuller assessment.