Focus survey puts Brazil’s 2026 inflation outlook at 5.22%
The median expectation rose to 5.22% from 5.01% a week earlier. Banco Central do Brasil published the report on October 13.
Event / data period: 2026-10-09
Published: · Updated:
The median 2026 year-end IPCA inflation expectation among institutions in the Focus survey was 5.22%. Four weeks earlier, the same median was 4.90%. The median among respondents who updated forecasts in the latest five business days was 5.19%.
These figures are not BCB forecasts; they summarize market expectations submitted by participating institutions. The report compiles expectations collected in the 30 days before its reference date; the median 2026 growth expectation remained 1.85%.
Data
Survey expectation indicators
Market participants’ 2026 median forecasts in the October 9, 2026 Focus report.
- Median 2026 year-end IPCA expectation
- 5.22 percent
- 2026 · Estimate
- Median 2026 GDP growth expectation
- 1.85 percent
- 2026 · Estimate
Methodology
Values are medians of participating institutions’ market expectations; they are not BCB forecasts or realized inflation.
Updated:
Subjects and places
Subject proposals
- InflationSuggested
- Subject suggested from the title or summary: inflationwww.bcb.gov.br ↗
Geographic references
Only source-provided geographic references are shown. Opening an external map is optional. Optional story maps use OpenStreetMap. Opening a map sends your IP address and this site’s address to the map provider; location data remains readable as text without loading the map.
- Brazil · Place role: Coverage · Place type: Country or area · Location precision: RegionalEvidence
- Explicit preserved editorial country/region; no city or national centroid inferredwww.bcb.gov.br ↗