USDA maps regional risks to Brazil agriculture from 2026/27 El Niño
A FAS report highlights drought and heat risks in northern and central areas and excessive rainfall in the South, while noting outcomes are uncertain.
Event / data period: 2026-10-13
Published: · Updated:
A 13 October report from USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service assessed how 2026/27 El Niño conditions could create different risks across Brazil. It points to a higher risk of below-average rainfall and heat in the North and Northeast, while the South faces a risk of excessive precipitation. In the Center-West, irregular rainfall could delay soybean planting and narrow the planting window for the following second-season corn crop.
FAS says high temperatures could affect coffee and orange flowering, sugarcane production and livestock welfare, while rainfall disruptions could strain pasture water supplies and logistics. The report says Brazilian soybean production could fall by as much as 6% under an extremely adverse scenario; this is a conditional scenario, not a firm forecast. It also says El Niño alone does not determine a decline in production.
Data
Potential soybean production decline in an extremely adverse scenario
Conditional upper-end impact cited by USDA FAS; it is not a firm forecast.
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Methodology
The report’s “up to 6%” figure applies only to an extremely adverse scenario and is not an observed result.
Updated:
Subjects and places
Subject proposals
- AgricultureSuggested
- Preserved editorial category/topic; broad candidate onlyfas-prod.azureedge.us ↗
- Weather phenomenaSuggested
- Subject suggested from the title or summary: El Niñofas-prod.azureedge.us ↗
- DroughtSuggested
- Subject suggested from the title or summary: droughtfas-prod.azureedge.us ↗
Geographic references
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- Brazil · Place role: Coverage · Place type: Country or area · Location precision: RegionalEvidence
- Explicit preserved editorial country/region; no city or national centroid inferredfas-prod.azureedge.us ↗