UNEP report sets out emission cuts for a return to 1.5°C

The UN Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap Report 2026, released on 21 October, says global temperatures are expected to exceed 1.5°C and examines a pathway to limit the size and duration of the overshoot and return to that level by century’s end. In the “lowest possible” overshoot scenario, warming peaks at 1.7–1.8°C around mid-century and returns to or below 1.5°C by 2100, with about a 50% chance, the report says.

That scenario requires global greenhouse gas emissions to fall 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, all relative to 2025. These are scenario requirements, not observed reductions. Full implementation of current national climate pledges would deliver smaller cuts of 5–8% by 2030 and 11–15% by 2035, also relative to 2025.