Scotland grew as energy costs and inflation weighed on the outlook
The October bulletin reported 0.7% growth in the three months to July and 3.1% inflation in August; its near-4% year-end figure is a forecast.
Event / data period: 2026-08
Published: · Updated:
The Scottish Government’s economic bulletin published on 13 October said Scotland’s economy grew 0.7% in the three months to July, with annual growth at 1.1%. It said higher energy and fuel prices were weighing on business costs and forward-looking sentiment.
The bulletin put August inflation at 3.1%, driven largely by petrol and diesel; this CPI figure refers to the United Kingdom as a whole. Scotland’s unemployment rate rose to 5.1% in May–July. The bulletin expects inflation to move closer to 4% around the turn of the year as broader energy-price pressures feed through; that is a source forecast, not an observed rate.
Data
Scottish and UK economic indicators
Growth, inflation and unemployment indicators cited in the October bulletin.
| Scottish GDP growth | Three months to July 2026 | 0.7 | Observed |
| UK consumer price inflation | August 2026 | 3.1 | Observed |
| Scottish unemployment rate | May–July 2026 | 5.1 | Observed |
| UK inflation outlook | Around the turn of 2026–27 | 4 | Source forecast (approximate) |
Methodology
The table separates Scotland-specific rates from the UK-wide inflation measure. The final row is a source forecast; 4% represents an approximate outlook.
Updated:
Subjects and places
Subject proposals
- InflationSuggested
- Subject suggested from the title or summary: inflationwww.gov.scot ↗
- Energy and resourceSuggested
- Subject suggested from the title or summary: energywww.gov.scot ↗
Geographic references
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- United Kingdom · Place role: Coverage · Place type: Country or area · Location precision: RegionalEvidence
- Explicit preserved editorial country/region; no city or national centroid inferredwww.gov.scot ↗