NewsOECD projects global growth of 2.9% in 2026 and 3% in 2027
Energy-shock and uncertainty risks persist, with separate forecasts for the United States, euro area and China.
Event / data period: 2026-09-23
Published: · Updated:
IllustrationThe OECD’s interim economic outlook, released on 23 September, projects global growth of 2.9% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027. The organisation says the course of the conflict in the Middle East remains uncertain and poses considerable risks to its baseline outlook.
The report says the oil shock was cushioned by alternative supply routes, inventory use including coordinated strategic-reserve releases in OECD economies, additional production outside the Gulf and lower oil demand, particularly in China. Strong investment in artificial intelligence is also continuing to support trade and economic growth.
The OECD projects US growth of 2.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, euro-area growth of 1.0% in both years, and China growth of 4.5% and 4.2%, respectively. G20 inflation is projected to rise to 4.1% in 2026 before easing to 3.6% in 2027.
These are forecasts based on the energy, trade and conflict assumptions available when the report was published, not realised growth figures. The duration of the conflict and energy-price movements could change the outlook.