ECB raises three key rates by 25 basis points and lifts inflation projections

The European Central Bank’s Governing Council raised its three key rates by 25 basis points on 10 September 2026. From 16 September, the deposit-facility rate was 2.50%, the main refinancing rate 2.65% and the marginal lending rate 2.90%.

The ECB said the conflict in the Middle East was generating inflation pressure and that inflation would remain above target for an extended period. Staff projections put headline inflation at 3.0% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028. The 2027 and 2028 inflation projections were revised up from June.

The same projection set put euro-area growth at 0.9% in 2026, 1.4% in 2027 and 1.5% in 2028. The ECB said the upward revisions for 2026 and 2027 mainly reflected greater-than-expected economic resilience.

The bank said the outlook depended on the intensity and duration of the energy shock, with risks to inflation and growth in different directions. It reiterated that decisions would be data-dependent and taken meeting by meeting, without a predetermined rate path.