Canadians’ long-term inflation expectations rise as spending plans weaken
The central bank’s third-quarter survey found long-term expectations aligned with elevated short-term views; these are consumer opinions, not realized inflation.
Event / data period: 2026-09
Published: · Updated:
The Bank of Canada’s Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations, published October 19, said consumers’ long-term inflation expectations rose in the third quarter to match already elevated shorter-term expectations. Perceptions of current inflation and expectations over the next 12 and 24 months changed little. Respondents cited tariffs and trade tensions as the leading factor affecting inflation, while energy prices also remained a widely mentioned concern.
The online survey ran from August 5 to 27; about three-quarters of responses were collected before Canada-US trade talks broke down on August 21. Follow-up phone interviews took place from August 24 to September 4. The Bank said consumers who responded after the breakdown reported higher inflation expectations at all horizons. Perceptions of financial health and the labour market improved, while spending intentions weakened amid high prices and uncertainty. These are survey opinions, not a price index or spending data.
Data
Selected responses in the central bank consumer survey
Two approximate shares reported in the Q3 2026 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations: workplace AI use and 12-month recession expectations.
- Consumers expecting a Canadian recession in the next 12 months
- ≈50 %
- 2026-09 · Observed
- Workers reporting AI use at work
- ≈40 %
- 2026-09 · Observed
Methodology
These are survey respondents’ reports and expectations, not realized measures of labour-market conditions, productivity or inflation. The recession share is reported as about half; the AI-use share applies to workers.
Updated:
Subjects and places
Subject proposals
- InflationSuggested
- Subject suggested from the title or summary: inflationwww.bankofcanada.ca ↗
Geographic references
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- Canada · Place role: Coverage · Place type: Country or area · Location precision: RegionalEvidence
- Explicit preserved editorial country/region; no city or national centroid inferredwww.bankofcanada.ca ↗