Share of Canadian firms planning for recession falls to 6% in central bank survey
The third-quarter survey found stronger sales outlooks, but about three-quarters of interviews predated the August 21 breakdown in Canada-US trade talks.
Event / data period: 2026-09
Published: · Updated:
The Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey, published October 19, found business sentiment improved in the third quarter of 2026 after weakening in the previous quarter. The share of firms planning or budgeting for a recession in Canada over the next 12 months fell from 17% to 6%. Firms reported better sales and export outlooks, investment intentions that remained robust but eased slightly, and soft hiring intentions.
Interviews were conducted in person, by video and by phone from August 6 to September 2. The Bank said about three-quarters took place before Canada-US trade talks broke down on August 21 and new Canadian counter-tariffs were announced. Responses gathered afterward pointed to weaker export and investment outlooks and higher cost and inflation expectations. The findings reflect the views of about 100 firms selected to represent Canada’s business sector; they are survey responses, not realized output, sales or employment data.
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Subjects and places
Subject proposals
- International tradeSuggested
- Subject suggested from the title or summary: trade talkswww.bankofcanada.ca ↗
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- Canada · Place role: Coverage · Place type: Country or area · Location precision: RegionalEvidence
- Explicit preserved editorial country/region; no city or national centroid inferredwww.bankofcanada.ca ↗