# WMO sees near-certain El Niño persistence through February 2027

> WMO’s August update forecast further El Niño strengthening and a nearly 100% chance that it would persist through February 2027.

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- Publisher: Newsverum
- Section: Climate
- Published: 2026-10-06T08:59:02+00:00
- Updated: 2026-10-07T05:59:35+03:00
- Event / data period: 2026-08
- Other editions: [Türkçe](https://newsverum.com/tr/news/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027.md), [العربية](https://newsverum.com/ar/news/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027.md), [Français](https://newsverum.com/fr/news/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027.md), [Español](https://newsverum.com/es/news/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027.md), [Deutsch](https://newsverum.com/de/news/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027.md), [Português](https://newsverum.com/pt/news/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027.md)

The World Meteorological Organization said on 3 September that El Niño was established and expected to become very strong in the coming months. Forecasts from WMO Global Producing Centres assigned a near-100% likelihood that it would persist through February 2027.

The agency said unusually warm tropical Pacific conditions supported the strengthening and that shifts in rainfall and temperature patterns could raise risks of floods, drought and extreme heat. This is a model-based WMO outlook, not a prediction of a specific disaster at a particular location.

## Data

### Source-reported figure

Measurement or forecast published by the official source.

Methodology: Stores the source-reported value and period without conversion or an independent forecast.

| label | value | unit | period | basis | value_qualifier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMO forecast likelihood El Niño persists through February 2027 | 100 | percent | 2027-02 | forecast | approximate |

Sources: <https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027> · Download data: [JSON](https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027/data/reported-figure?lang=en&format=json) · [CSV](https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027/data/reported-figure?lang=en&format=csv)

## Sources

- [World Meteorological Organization](<https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027>) (Source checked: 2026-10-06; Published: 2026-09-03)

## Correction history

- 2026-10-07T00:53:36+03:00: German and Portuguese editions and translations of the data and correction explanations have been added to this article.
- 2026-10-07T05:59:35+03:00: Data classification added: each figure now carries a measure identifier with its unit, geography, frequency and type. No figure, unit or date changed.

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