# UNEP report sets out emission cuts for a return to 1.5°C

> Its lowest-overshoot scenario calls for global greenhouse gas emissions to fall 18% by 2030 from 2025 levels.

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- Section: Climate
- Published: 2026-10-21T15:31:13+00:00
- Updated: 2026-10-21T15:31:13+00:00
- Event / data period: 2026-10-21
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The UN Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap Report 2026, released on 21 October, says global temperatures are expected to exceed 1.5°C and examines a pathway to limit the size and duration of the overshoot and return to that level by century’s end. In the “lowest possible” overshoot scenario, warming peaks at 1.7–1.8°C around mid-century and returns to or below 1.5°C by 2100, with about a 50% chance, the report says.

That scenario requires global greenhouse gas emissions to fall 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, all relative to 2025. These are scenario requirements, not observed reductions. Full implementation of current national climate pledges would deliver smaller cuts of 5–8% by 2030 and 11–15% by 2035, also relative to 2025.

## Data

### UNEP report sets out emission cuts for a return to 1.5°C

Methodology: Global scenario requirements as reported by UNEP; percentages are relative to the 2025 reference level and are targets, not observed outcomes.

| label | value | unit | period | basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2030 scenario requirement: change in global GHG emissions from 2025 | -18 | percent | 2030 | target |
| 2035 scenario requirement: change in global GHG emissions from 2025 | -45 | percent | 2035 | target |
| 2040 scenario requirement: change in global GHG emissions from 2025 | -69 | percent | 2040 | target |

Sources: <https://www.unep.org/en/news-and-stories/press-release/new-unep-report-lays-out-emission-cuts-needed-return-15degc> · Download data: [JSON](https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/unep-emissions-gap-report-2026-cuts-for-15c-return/data/emissions-gap-scenario?lang=en&format=json) · [CSV](https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/unep-emissions-gap-report-2026-cuts-for-15c-return/data/emissions-gap-scenario?lang=en&format=csv)

## Sources

- [United Nations Environment Programme](<https://www.unep.org/en/news-and-stories/press-release/new-unep-report-lays-out-emission-cuts-needed-return-15degc>) (Source checked: 2026-10-21; Published: 2026-10-21)

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