# Norway rebuilds housing-wealth model using 881,000 sales

> A report published by Statistics Norway (SSB) on 15 October details results and methodological changes in a housing-wealth model based on home sales from 2015 to 2024 and used for 2026 tax-card values. After filtering, 881,472 sales entered the model. The country’s 14,101 basic statistical units in 2024 were grouped into 1,272 calculation areas by housing type.

- Canonical URL: https://newsverum.com/en/news/norway-revised-housing-wealth-model-results-2015-2024
- Publisher: Newsverum
- Section: Economy
- Country: Norway
- Published: 2026-10-16T10:36:24+00:00
- Updated: 2026-10-16T10:36:24+00:00
- Event / data period: 2024
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The revised approach groups smaller basic statistical units rather than relying on municipality borders. A decision-tree algorithm combines areas with similar price patterns, followed by a separate hedonic regression for each area and housing type. In 10-fold cross-validation, mean absolute percentage error was 12.53% for all homes, 18.04% for detached houses and 10.18% for apartments. An estimated 83.07% of values fell within 20% of observed sale prices. These results do not guarantee an individual valuation and depend on the model’s sample and filters.

## Data

### Model sample and calculation areas

Coverage of the housing-wealth model; sales sample January 2015–November 2024.

Methodology: Counts are transcribed from SSB report tables about the model sample and the 2024 base-unit count; they are not estimates.

| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Home sales retained after filtering | 881472 |
| Basic statistical units in 2024 | 14101 |
| Calculation areas, all housing types | 1272 |
| Detached-house calculation areas | 395 |
| Small-house calculation areas | 178 |
| Apartment calculation areas | 699 |

Sources: <https://www.ssb.no/priser-og-prisindekser/boligpriser-og-boligprisindekser/artikler/revidert-modell-for-beregning-av-boligformue-resultater-fra-modellkjoring-2015-2024/_/attachment/inline/de88a037-954f-449b-b8cc-525d7229d1f9%3A2957029d73f42108832efb0accbbec8044c9494b/NOT2026-37.pdf> · Download data: [JSON](https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/norway-revised-housing-wealth-model-results-2015-2024/data/housing-model-sample-and-areas?lang=en&format=json) · [CSV](https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/norway-revised-housing-wealth-model-results-2015-2024/data/housing-model-sample-and-areas?lang=en&format=csv)

### Cross-validation performance, 2015–2024

Cross-validation performance measures on SSB’s 2015–2024 transaction data; indicator definitions follow the report.

Methodology: Percentages are transcribed from SSB’s 10-fold cross-validation table. MAPE measures error magnitude; PM10/20/50 are shares of homes whose estimate falls within the corresponding percentage band of the observed sale price.

| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| MAPE, all homes | 12.53 |
| MAPE, detached houses | 18.04 |
| MAPE, small houses | 10.69 |
| MAPE, apartments | 10.18 |
| Median absolute percentage error, all homes | 8.7 |
| Values within 10% of observed price | 55.89 |
| Values within 20% of observed price | 83.07 |
| Values within 50% of observed price | 98.05 |

Sources: <https://www.ssb.no/priser-og-prisindekser/boligpriser-og-boligprisindekser/artikler/revidert-modell-for-beregning-av-boligformue-resultater-fra-modellkjoring-2015-2024/_/attachment/inline/de88a037-954f-449b-b8cc-525d7229d1f9%3A2957029d73f42108832efb0accbbec8044c9494b/NOT2026-37.pdf> · Download data: [JSON](https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/norway-revised-housing-wealth-model-results-2015-2024/data/housing-model-cross-validation?lang=en&format=json) · [CSV](https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/norway-revised-housing-wealth-model-results-2015-2024/data/housing-model-cross-validation?lang=en&format=csv)

## Sources

- [Statistics Norway (SSB)](<https://www.ssb.no/priser-og-prisindekser/boligpriser-og-boligprisindekser/artikler/revidert-modell-for-beregning-av-boligformue-resultater-fra-modellkjoring-2015-2024/_/attachment/inline/de88a037-954f-449b-b8cc-525d7229d1f9%3A2957029d73f42108832efb0accbbec8044c9494b/NOT2026-37.pdf>) (Source checked: 2026-10-16; Published: 2026-10-15)

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