# IEA sees global oil demand falling by 2.6 million barrels a day in 2026

> The October report puts average annual demand at 102.4 million barrels a day.

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- Section: Energy
- Published: 2026-10-15T16:53:09+00:00
- Updated: 2026-10-15T16:53:09+00:00
- Event / data period: 2026-10-14
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The International Energy Agency’s October Oil Market Report, published on October 14, forecasts that world oil demand will fall by an average 2.6 million barrels a day in 2026 to 102.4 million barrels a day. It projects a year-on-year decline of 2.5 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter.

The IEA expects a partial recovery of 2 million barrels a day in 2027, but says use would still be 620,000 barrels a day, or 0.6%, below 2025. The report says global supply rose by 2.5 million barrels a day month on month to 102.3 million in September; these supply and demand figures are agency estimates.

## Data

### IEA forecasts and estimates

Global figures reported in the October 2026 report.

Methodology: The 2026 annual demand level and change are IEA forecasts; September supply is the agency’s monthly estimate. Unit: million barrels per day.

| label | value | unit | period | basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 average world demand | 102.4 | million barrels per day | 2026 | forecast |
| 2026 annual demand change | -2.6 | million barrels per day | 2026 | forecast |
| September world supply | 102.3 | million barrels per day | 2026-09 | estimate |

Sources: <https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-october-2026> · Download data: [JSON](https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/iea-oil-demand-forecast-october-2026/data/iea-global-oil-market-october-2026?lang=en&format=json) · [CSV](https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/iea-oil-demand-forecast-october-2026/data/iea-global-oil-market-october-2026?lang=en&format=csv)

## Sources

- [International Energy Agency](<https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-october-2026>) (Source checked: 2026-10-15; Published: 2026-10-14)

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