# Focus survey puts Brazil’s 2026 inflation outlook at 5.22%

> The median expectation rose to 5.22% from 5.01% a week earlier. Banco Central do Brasil published the report on October 13.

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- Publisher: Newsverum
- Section: Economy
- Country: Brazil
- Published: 2026-10-15T18:13:43+00:00
- Updated: 2026-10-15T18:13:43+00:00
- Event / data period: 2026-10-09
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The median 2026 year-end IPCA inflation expectation among institutions in the Focus survey was 5.22%. Four weeks earlier, the same median was 4.90%. The median among respondents who updated forecasts in the latest five business days was 5.19%.

These figures are not BCB forecasts; they summarize market expectations submitted by participating institutions. The report compiles expectations collected in the 30 days before its reference date; the median 2026 growth expectation remained 1.85%.

## Data

### Survey expectation indicators

Market participants’ 2026 median forecasts in the October 9, 2026 Focus report.

Methodology: Values are medians of participating institutions’ market expectations; they are not BCB forecasts or realized inflation.

| label | value | unit | period | basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median 2026 year-end IPCA expectation | 5.22 | percent | 2026 | estimate |
| Median 2026 GDP growth expectation | 1.85 | percent | 2026 | estimate |

Sources: <https://www.bcb.gov.br/content/focus/focusmarketreadout/R20261009.pdf> · Download data: [JSON](https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/brazil-focus-survey-2026-ipca-expectation-rises-to-5-22-percent/data/focus-2026-market-expectations?lang=en&format=json) · [CSV](https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/brazil-focus-survey-2026-ipca-expectation-rises-to-5-22-percent/data/focus-2026-market-expectations?lang=en&format=csv)

## Sources

- [Central Bank of Brazil (Banco Central do Brasil)](<https://www.bcb.gov.br/content/focus/focusmarketreadout/R20261009.pdf>) (Source checked: 2026-10-15; Published: 2026-10-13)

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