# Brazil agencies project contrasting regional rainfall under El Niño > A multi-agency outlook dated October 1 points to above-average rainfall in the South and below-average rainfall across much of north-central Brazil in October–December 2026. - Canonical URL: https://newsverum.com/en/news/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026 - Publisher: Newsverum - Section: Climate - Country: Brazil - Published: 2026-10-06T17:11:49+00:00 - Updated: 2026-10-07T05:56:59+03:00 - Event / data period: 2026-10-01 - Other editions: [Türkçe](https://newsverum.com/tr/news/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026.md), [العربية](https://newsverum.com/ar/news/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026.md), [Français](https://newsverum.com/fr/news/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026.md), [Español](https://newsverum.com/es/news/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026.md), [Deutsch](https://newsverum.com/de/news/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026.md), [Português](https://newsverum.com/pt/news/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026.md) Brazil’s El Niño Panel, produced by seven federal institutions, published its fourth monthly bulletin on October 1. It reported that Pacific sea-surface anomalies in NOAA’s September 28 bulletin exceeded 2°C and that models indicated the event could persist at least into early 2027. The October–December seasonal outlook gives a higher probability of above-average rainfall in the South and parts of the Southeast, and below-average rainfall across much of the North and parts of the Center-West and Northeast. Cemaden’s partial September data also classified 197 municipalities as facing severe drought, up from 153 in August. These are institutional outlooks and monitoring classifications. ## Data ### Indicators in the El Niño Panel Panel rainfall outlook and Cemaden drought classification. Methodology: Above 95% is the panel’s reported modeled probability for a very strong El Niño; municipality counts are from Cemaden’s partial September monitoring. | label | value | unit | period | basis | value_qualifier | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | Municipalities in severe drought | 197 | count | 2026-09 | observed | | | Previous-month municipalities in severe drought | 153 | count | 2026-08 | observed | | | Probability of very strong event | 95 | % | 2026-10 | forecast | lower-bound | Sources: · Download data: [JSON](https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026/data/brazil-el-nino-figures?lang=en&format=json) · [CSV](https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026/data/brazil-el-nino-figures?lang=en&format=csv) ## Sources - [National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters of Brazil]() (Source checked: 2026-10-06; Published: 2026-10-01) ## Correction history - 2026-10-07T00:48:44+03:00: German and Portuguese editions and translations of the data and correction explanations have been added to this article. - 2026-10-07T05:56:59+03:00: Data classification added: each figure now carries a measure identifier with its unit, geography, frequency and type. No figure, unit or date changed. --- Cite the canonical URL above. [Editorial standards and corrections](https://newsverum.com/en/editorial)