# Canadians’ long-term inflation expectations rise as spending plans weaken

> The central bank’s third-quarter survey found long-term expectations aligned with elevated short-term views; these are consumer opinions, not realized inflation.

- Canonical URL: https://newsverum.com/en/news/bank-canada-consumer-expectations-q3-2026-inflation-and-spending
- Publisher: Newsverum
- Section: Economy
- Country: Canada
- Published: 2026-10-20T23:01:22+00:00
- Updated: 2026-10-20T23:01:22+00:00
- Event / data period: 2026-09
- Other editions: [Türkçe](https://newsverum.com/tr/news/bank-canada-consumer-expectations-q3-2026-inflation-and-spending.md), [العربية](https://newsverum.com/ar/news/bank-canada-consumer-expectations-q3-2026-inflation-and-spending.md), [Français](https://newsverum.com/fr/news/bank-canada-consumer-expectations-q3-2026-inflation-and-spending.md), [Español](https://newsverum.com/es/news/bank-canada-consumer-expectations-q3-2026-inflation-and-spending.md), [Deutsch](https://newsverum.com/de/news/bank-canada-consumer-expectations-q3-2026-inflation-and-spending.md), [Português](https://newsverum.com/pt/news/bank-canada-consumer-expectations-q3-2026-inflation-and-spending.md)

The Bank of Canada’s Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations, published October 19, said consumers’ long-term inflation expectations rose in the third quarter to match already elevated shorter-term expectations. Perceptions of current inflation and expectations over the next 12 and 24 months changed little. Respondents cited tariffs and trade tensions as the leading factor affecting inflation, while energy prices also remained a widely mentioned concern.

The online survey ran from August 5 to 27; about three-quarters of responses were collected before Canada-US trade talks broke down on August 21. Follow-up phone interviews took place from August 24 to September 4. The Bank said consumers who responded after the breakdown reported higher inflation expectations at all horizons. Perceptions of financial health and the labour market improved, while spending intentions weakened amid high prices and uncertainty. These are survey opinions, not a price index or spending data.

## Data

### Selected responses in the central bank consumer survey

Two approximate shares reported in the Q3 2026 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations: workplace AI use and 12-month recession expectations.

Methodology: These are survey respondents’ reports and expectations, not realized measures of labour-market conditions, productivity or inflation. The recession share is reported as about half; the AI-use share applies to workers.

| label | value | unit | period | basis | value_qualifier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumers expecting a Canadian recession in the next 12 months | 50 | % | 2026-09 | observed | approximate |
| Workers reporting AI use at work | 40 | % | 2026-09 | observed | approximate |

Sources: <https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/canadian-survey-of-consumer-expectations-third-quarter-of-2026/> · Download data: [JSON](https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/bank-canada-consumer-expectations-q3-2026-inflation-and-spending/data/consumer-expectations-survey-selected-responses?lang=en&format=json) · [CSV](https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/bank-canada-consumer-expectations-q3-2026-inflation-and-spending/data/consumer-expectations-survey-selected-responses?lang=en&format=csv)

## Sources

- [Bank of Canada](<https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/canadian-survey-of-consumer-expectations-third-quarter-of-2026/>) (Source checked: 2026-10-20; Published: 2026-10-19)

---

Cite the canonical URL above. [Editorial standards and corrections](https://newsverum.com/en/editorial)