# Share of Canadian firms planning for recession falls to 6% in central bank survey

> The third-quarter survey found stronger sales outlooks, but about three-quarters of interviews predated the August 21 breakdown in Canada-US trade talks.

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- Publisher: Newsverum
- Section: Economy
- Country: Canada
- Published: 2026-10-20T23:01:22+00:00
- Updated: 2026-10-20T23:01:22+00:00
- Event / data period: 2026-09
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The Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey, published October 19, found business sentiment improved in the third quarter of 2026 after weakening in the previous quarter. The share of firms planning or budgeting for a recession in Canada over the next 12 months fell from 17% to 6%. Firms reported better sales and export outlooks, investment intentions that remained robust but eased slightly, and soft hiring intentions.

Interviews were conducted in person, by video and by phone from August 6 to September 2. The Bank said about three-quarters took place before Canada-US trade talks broke down on August 21 and new Canadian counter-tariffs were announced. Responses gathered afterward pointed to weaker export and investment outlooks and higher cost and inflation expectations. The findings reflect the views of about 100 firms selected to represent Canada’s business sector; they are survey responses, not realized output, sales or employment data.

## Data

### Business recession planning

Share of firms planning or budgeting for a recession in Canada within 12 months in the Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey.

Methodology: The survey covers views from about 100 selected firms. This is a planning/expectations response, not a measure of an actual recession, output or activity. About three-quarters of Q3 2026 interviews occurred before August 21.

| label | value | unit | period | basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share of firms planning or budgeting for a Canadian recession in the next 12 months | 17 | % | 2026-06 | observed |
| Share of firms planning or budgeting for a Canadian recession in the next 12 months | 6 | % | 2026-09 | observed |

Sources: <https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/business-outlook-survey-third-quarter-of-2026/> · Download data: [JSON](https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/bank-canada-business-outlook-survey-q3-2026-recession-plans/data/business-recession-planning-share?lang=en&format=json) · [CSV](https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/bank-canada-business-outlook-survey-q3-2026-recession-plans/data/business-recession-planning-share?lang=en&format=csv)

## Sources

- [Bank of Canada](<https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/business-outlook-survey-third-quarter-of-2026/>) (Source checked: 2026-10-20; Published: 2026-10-19)

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