{"article":{"annotation":{"article_id":"wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027","available_at":"2026-10-07T03:14:17.518810Z","geography_revision":"ef6ee0010dda5fe7b240fd514749b43e214c57da73222d2e40ec83b276dd0977","id":"0ff61cf1b59715355280090191625820c5be07d1a6343b260f9fd7f23df3a25f","input_sha256":"b0eaf9ba20af883f167d7308c8159d84398ad81dba935bebcc85c5aadbf40c69","limitations":["Rule-derived subjects are candidates, not verified editorial labels or calibrated model probabilities.","Coverage is distinct from event location. Unknown country/city/coordinates remain absent; no automatic geocoding.","Article geometries keep their stated precision and methodology; reproducing them is not independent coordinate verification."],"method":"controlled-rules-v1","places":[],"rules_sha256":"d28c9c89703b56bd91fd887965d416d0115c2473d4bfbd3e558bcceafc3941dd","schema_version":1,"subjects":[{"concept_id":"medtop:20001129","confidence":null,"confidence_method":null,"evidence":[{"field":"en.title+en.summary","language":"en","note":"Subject suggested from the title or summary: El Niño","source_urls":["https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027"]}],"method":"controlled-rules-v1","rule_id":"weather-phenomena","status":"candidate"},{"concept_id":"medtop:06000000","confidence":null,"confidence_method":null,"evidence":[{"field":"category+topics","language":"en","note":"Preserved editorial category/topic; broad candidate only","source_urls":["https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027"]}],"method":"controlled-rules-v1","rule_id":"climate-broad","status":"candidate"}],"taxonomy_revision":"1f2db31d811fca07e99b16d402c10e2cc2965c9df1c7b41d9be348b40a24e7fb","taxonomy_version":"IPTC Media Topics 2026-Q2"},"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027?lang=fr","category":"climate","content":{"key_points":[],"paragraphs":["Le 3 septembre, l’Organisation météorologique mondiale a indiqué qu’El Niño était installé et devrait devenir très fort dans les prochains mois. Les prévisions des centres mondiaux de production de l’OMM évaluent à près de 100 % la probabilité qu’il persiste jusqu’en février 2027.","L’agence a indiqué que des conditions exceptionnellement chaudes dans le Pacifique tropical favorisaient son intensification et que les changements de pluie et de température pourraient accroître les risques d’inondation, de sécheresse et de chaleur extrême. Il s’agit d’une prévision fondée sur des modèles, et non de l’annonce d’une catastrophe précise en un lieu donné."],"sections":[]},"corrections":[{"at":"2026-10-07T00:53:36+03:00","language":"fr","text":"Des éditions allemande et portugaise, ainsi que les traductions des explications des données et des corrections, ont été ajoutées à cet article."},{"at":"2026-10-07T05:59:35+03:00","language":"fr","text":"Classification des données ajoutée : chaque chiffre porte désormais un identifiant de mesure avec son unité, sa zone géographique, sa fréquence et son type. Aucun chiffre, unité ou date n’a changé."}],"country":null,"data":{"blocks":[{"description":{"ar":"قياس أو توقع منشور في المصدر الرسمي.","de":"Von der amtlichen Quelle veröffentlichte Messgröße oder Prognose.","en":"Measurement or forecast published by the official source.","es":"Medición o previsión publicada por la fuente oficial.","fr":"Mesure ou prévision publiée par la source officielle.","pt":"Medida ou previsão publicada pela fonte oficial.","tr":"Resmi kaynakta yayımlanan ölçüm veya tahmin."},"id":"reported-figure","items":[{"basis":"forecast","label":{"ar":"احتمال استمرار إل نينيو حتى فبراير 2027","de":"WMO-Prognose: Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass El Niño bis Februar 2027 anhält","en":"WMO forecast likelihood El Niño persists through February 2027","es":"Probabilidad prevista de persistir hasta febrero de 2027","fr":"Probabilité prévue de persistance jusqu’en février 2027","pt":"Previsão da OMM: probabilidade de o El Niño persistir até fevereiro de 2027","tr":"WMO’ya göre El Niño’nun Şubat 2027’ye kadar sürme olasılığı"},"measure":{"aggregation":"rate","frequency":"irregular","geography":"world","id":"wmo-el-nino-persistence-probability","periodRole":"reference-period","unitCode":"percent"},"period":"2027-02","unit":"percent","value":100,"valueQualifier":"approximate"}],"methodology":{"ar":"يسجل القيمة والفترة الواردتين في المصدر دون تحويل أو توقع مستقل.","de":"Speichert den von der Quelle gemeldeten Wert und Zeitraum ohne Umrechnung oder unabhängige Prognose.","en":"Stores the source-reported value and period without conversion or an independent forecast.","es":"Registra el valor y el periodo indicados por la fuente, sin conversión ni pronóstico independiente.","fr":"Enregistre la valeur et la période indiquées par la source, sans conversion ni prévision indépendante.","pt":"Registra o valor e o período informados pela fonte, sem conversão nem previsão independente.","tr":"Kaynakta bildirilen değeri ve dönemi aynen kaydeder; dönüştürme veya bağımsız tahmin yapılmamıştır."},"sourceUrls":["https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027"],"title":{"ar":"القيمة الواردة في المصدر","de":"Von der Quelle gemeldete Kennzahl","en":"Source-reported figure","es":"Dato comunicado por la fuente","fr":"Valeur publiée par la source","pt":"Indicador informado pela fonte","tr":"Kaynakta bildirilen ölçüm"},"type":"metrics","updatedAt":"2026-10-07T00:53:36+03:00"}],"version":1},"data_downloads":[{"formats":{"csv":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027/data/reported-figure?lang=fr&format=csv","json":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027/data/reported-figure?lang=fr&format=json"},"id":"reported-figure"}],"data_types":["metrics"],"editorial_illustration":{"alt":"Illustration conceptuelle de l’atmosphère, des océans et des observations climatiques.","asset_id":"newsverum-v1-climate","avif_variants":[{"height":320,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-480.avif","width":480},{"height":480,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-720.avif","width":720},{"height":640,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-960.avif","width":960},{"height":800,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-1200.avif","width":1200},{"height":1024,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-1536.avif","width":1536}],"credit":"Newsverum","documentary":false,"height":1024,"kind":"symbolic-editorial-illustration","language":"fr","scope":"topic","url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-1536.webp","variants":[{"height":320,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-480.webp","width":480},{"height":640,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-960.webp","width":960},{"height":1024,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-1536.webp","width":1536}],"width":1536},"event_id":"event-b93be3ff-e02e-5ee1-a58e-fd994322ac33","event_period":"2026-08","event_period_basis":"event-or-reference-period","id":"wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027","image":null,"importance":0.6,"language":"fr","modified_at":"2026-10-07T05:59:35+03:00","publication_basis":"publication-record","published_at":"2026-10-06T08:59:02+00:00","reading_minutes":1,"region":"world","section_illustration":{"alt":"Illustration conceptuelle de l’atmosphère, des océans et des observations climatiques.","asset_id":"newsverum-v1-climate","avif_variants":[{"height":320,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-480.avif","width":480},{"height":480,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-720.avif","width":720},{"height":640,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-960.avif","width":960},{"height":800,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-1200.avif","width":1200},{"height":1024,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-1536.avif","width":1536}],"credit":"Newsverum","documentary":false,"height":1024,"kind":"symbolic-editorial-illustration","language":"fr","scope":"section","url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-1536.webp","variants":[{"height":320,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-480.webp","width":480},{"height":640,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-960.webp","width":960},{"height":1024,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-1536.webp","width":1536}],"width":1536},"slug":"wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027","sources":[{"checkedAt":"2026-10-06","name":"World Meteorological Organization","publishedAt":"2026-09-03","url":"https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027"}],"summary":"La mise à jour d’août de l’OMM prévoit un renforcement d’El Niño et une probabilité proche de 100 % qu’il persiste jusqu’en février 2027.","text":"La mise à jour d’août de l’OMM prévoit un renforcement d’El Niño et une probabilité proche de 100 % qu’il persiste jusqu’en février 2027.\n\nLe 3 septembre, l’Organisation météorologique mondiale a indiqué qu’El Niño était installé et devrait devenir très fort dans les prochains mois. Les prévisions des centres mondiaux de production de l’OMM évaluent à près de 100 % la probabilité qu’il persiste jusqu’en février 2027.\n\nL’agence a indiqué que des conditions exceptionnellement chaudes dans le Pacifique tropical favorisaient son intensification et que les changements de pluie et de température pourraient accroître les risques d’inondation, de sécheresse et de chaleur extrême. Il s’agit d’une prévision fondée sur des modèles, et non de l’annonce d’une catastrophe précise en un lieu donné.\n\nDes éditions allemande et portugaise, ainsi que les traductions des explications des données et des corrections, ont été ajoutées à cet article.\n\nClassification des données ajoutée : chaque chiffre porte désormais un identifiant de mesure avec son unité, sa zone géographique, sa fréquence et son type. Aucun chiffre, unité ou date n’a changé.","title":"L’OMM juge presque certain qu’El Niño persiste jusqu’en février 2027","topics":[],"translations":[{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027?lang=tr","language":"tr","url":"https://newsverum.com/tr/news/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027?lang=en","language":"en","url":"https://newsverum.com/en/news/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027?lang=ar","language":"ar","url":"https://newsverum.com/ar/news/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027?lang=fr","language":"fr","url":"https://newsverum.com/fr/news/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027?lang=es","language":"es","url":"https://newsverum.com/es/news/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027?lang=de","language":"de","url":"https://newsverum.com/de/news/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027?lang=pt","language":"pt","url":"https://newsverum.com/pt/news/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027"}],"url":"https://newsverum.com/fr/news/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027"},"version":"1"}