{"article":{"annotation":{"article_id":"wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027","available_at":"2026-10-07T03:14:17.518810Z","geography_revision":"ef6ee0010dda5fe7b240fd514749b43e214c57da73222d2e40ec83b276dd0977","id":"0ff61cf1b59715355280090191625820c5be07d1a6343b260f9fd7f23df3a25f","input_sha256":"b0eaf9ba20af883f167d7308c8159d84398ad81dba935bebcc85c5aadbf40c69","limitations":["Rule-derived subjects are candidates, not verified editorial labels or calibrated model probabilities.","Coverage is distinct from event location. Unknown country/city/coordinates remain absent; no automatic geocoding.","Article geometries keep their stated precision and methodology; reproducing them is not independent coordinate verification."],"method":"controlled-rules-v1","places":[],"rules_sha256":"d28c9c89703b56bd91fd887965d416d0115c2473d4bfbd3e558bcceafc3941dd","schema_version":1,"subjects":[{"concept_id":"medtop:20001129","confidence":null,"confidence_method":null,"evidence":[{"field":"en.title+en.summary","language":"en","note":"Subject suggested from the title or summary: El Niño","source_urls":["https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027"]}],"method":"controlled-rules-v1","rule_id":"weather-phenomena","status":"candidate"},{"concept_id":"medtop:06000000","confidence":null,"confidence_method":null,"evidence":[{"field":"category+topics","language":"en","note":"Preserved editorial category/topic; broad candidate only","source_urls":["https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027"]}],"method":"controlled-rules-v1","rule_id":"climate-broad","status":"candidate"}],"taxonomy_revision":"1f2db31d811fca07e99b16d402c10e2cc2965c9df1c7b41d9be348b40a24e7fb","taxonomy_version":"IPTC Media Topics 2026-Q2"},"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027?lang=en","category":"climate","content":{"key_points":[],"paragraphs":["The World Meteorological Organization said on 3 September that El Niño was established and expected to become very strong in the coming months. Forecasts from WMO Global Producing Centres assigned a near-100% likelihood that it would persist through February 2027.","The agency said unusually warm tropical Pacific conditions supported the strengthening and that shifts in rainfall and temperature patterns could raise risks of floods, drought and extreme heat. This is a model-based WMO outlook, not a prediction of a specific disaster at a particular location."],"sections":[]},"corrections":[{"at":"2026-10-07T00:53:36+03:00","language":"en","text":"German and Portuguese editions and translations of the data and correction explanations have been added to this article."},{"at":"2026-10-07T05:59:35+03:00","language":"en","text":"Data classification added: each figure now carries a measure identifier with its unit, geography, frequency and type. No figure, unit or date changed."}],"country":null,"data":{"blocks":[{"description":{"ar":"قياس أو توقع منشور في المصدر الرسمي.","de":"Von der amtlichen Quelle veröffentlichte Messgröße oder Prognose.","en":"Measurement or forecast published by the official source.","es":"Medición o previsión publicada por la fuente oficial.","fr":"Mesure ou prévision publiée par la source officielle.","pt":"Medida ou previsão publicada pela fonte oficial.","tr":"Resmi kaynakta yayımlanan ölçüm veya tahmin."},"id":"reported-figure","items":[{"basis":"forecast","label":{"ar":"احتمال استمرار إل نينيو حتى فبراير 2027","de":"WMO-Prognose: Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass El Niño bis Februar 2027 anhält","en":"WMO forecast likelihood El Niño persists through February 2027","es":"Probabilidad prevista de persistir hasta febrero de 2027","fr":"Probabilité prévue de persistance jusqu’en février 2027","pt":"Previsão da OMM: probabilidade de o El Niño persistir até fevereiro de 2027","tr":"WMO’ya göre El Niño’nun Şubat 2027’ye kadar sürme olasılığı"},"measure":{"aggregation":"rate","frequency":"irregular","geography":"world","id":"wmo-el-nino-persistence-probability","periodRole":"reference-period","unitCode":"percent"},"period":"2027-02","unit":"percent","value":100,"valueQualifier":"approximate"}],"methodology":{"ar":"يسجل القيمة والفترة الواردتين في المصدر دون تحويل أو توقع مستقل.","de":"Speichert den von der Quelle gemeldeten Wert und Zeitraum ohne Umrechnung oder unabhängige Prognose.","en":"Stores the source-reported value and period without conversion or an independent forecast.","es":"Registra el valor y el periodo indicados por la fuente, sin conversión ni pronóstico independiente.","fr":"Enregistre la valeur et la période indiquées par la source, sans conversion ni prévision indépendante.","pt":"Registra o valor e o período informados pela fonte, sem conversão nem previsão independente.","tr":"Kaynakta bildirilen değeri ve dönemi aynen kaydeder; dönüştürme veya bağımsız tahmin yapılmamıştır."},"sourceUrls":["https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027"],"title":{"ar":"القيمة الواردة في المصدر","de":"Von der Quelle gemeldete Kennzahl","en":"Source-reported figure","es":"Dato comunicado por la fuente","fr":"Valeur publiée par la source","pt":"Indicador informado pela fonte","tr":"Kaynakta bildirilen ölçüm"},"type":"metrics","updatedAt":"2026-10-07T00:53:36+03:00"}],"version":1},"data_downloads":[{"formats":{"csv":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027/data/reported-figure?lang=en&format=csv","json":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027/data/reported-figure?lang=en&format=json"},"id":"reported-figure"}],"data_types":["metrics"],"editorial_illustration":{"alt":"Conceptual illustration of the atmosphere, oceans and climate observations.","asset_id":"newsverum-v1-climate","avif_variants":[{"height":320,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-480.avif","width":480},{"height":480,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-720.avif","width":720},{"height":640,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-960.avif","width":960},{"height":800,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-1200.avif","width":1200},{"height":1024,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-1536.avif","width":1536}],"credit":"Newsverum","documentary":false,"height":1024,"kind":"symbolic-editorial-illustration","language":"en","scope":"topic","url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-1536.webp","variants":[{"height":320,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-480.webp","width":480},{"height":640,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-960.webp","width":960},{"height":1024,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-1536.webp","width":1536}],"width":1536},"event_id":"event-b93be3ff-e02e-5ee1-a58e-fd994322ac33","event_period":"2026-08","event_period_basis":"event-or-reference-period","id":"wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027","image":null,"importance":0.6,"language":"en","modified_at":"2026-10-07T05:59:35+03:00","publication_basis":"publication-record","published_at":"2026-10-06T08:59:02+00:00","reading_minutes":1,"region":"world","section_illustration":{"alt":"Conceptual illustration of the atmosphere, oceans and climate observations.","asset_id":"newsverum-v1-climate","avif_variants":[{"height":320,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-480.avif","width":480},{"height":480,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-720.avif","width":720},{"height":640,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-960.avif","width":960},{"height":800,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-1200.avif","width":1200},{"height":1024,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-1536.avif","width":1536}],"credit":"Newsverum","documentary":false,"height":1024,"kind":"symbolic-editorial-illustration","language":"en","scope":"section","url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-1536.webp","variants":[{"height":320,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-480.webp","width":480},{"height":640,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-960.webp","width":960},{"height":1024,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-1536.webp","width":1536}],"width":1536},"slug":"wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027","sources":[{"checkedAt":"2026-10-06","name":"World Meteorological Organization","publishedAt":"2026-09-03","url":"https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027"}],"summary":"WMO’s August update forecast further El Niño strengthening and a nearly 100% chance that it would persist through February 2027.","text":"WMO’s August update forecast further El Niño strengthening and a nearly 100% chance that it would persist through February 2027.\n\nThe World Meteorological Organization said on 3 September that El Niño was established and expected to become very strong in the coming months. Forecasts from WMO Global Producing Centres assigned a near-100% likelihood that it would persist through February 2027.\n\nThe agency said unusually warm tropical Pacific conditions supported the strengthening and that shifts in rainfall and temperature patterns could raise risks of floods, drought and extreme heat. This is a model-based WMO outlook, not a prediction of a specific disaster at a particular location.\n\nGerman and Portuguese editions and translations of the data and correction explanations have been added to this article.\n\nData classification added: each figure now carries a measure identifier with its unit, geography, frequency and type. No figure, unit or date changed.","title":"WMO sees near-certain El Niño persistence through February 2027","topics":[],"translations":[{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027?lang=tr","language":"tr","url":"https://newsverum.com/tr/news/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027?lang=en","language":"en","url":"https://newsverum.com/en/news/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027?lang=ar","language":"ar","url":"https://newsverum.com/ar/news/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027?lang=fr","language":"fr","url":"https://newsverum.com/fr/news/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027?lang=es","language":"es","url":"https://newsverum.com/es/news/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027?lang=de","language":"de","url":"https://newsverum.com/de/news/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027?lang=pt","language":"pt","url":"https://newsverum.com/pt/news/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027"}],"url":"https://newsverum.com/en/news/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027"},"version":"1"}