{"article":{"annotation":{"article_id":"wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027","available_at":"2026-10-07T03:14:17.518810Z","geography_revision":"ef6ee0010dda5fe7b240fd514749b43e214c57da73222d2e40ec83b276dd0977","id":"0ff61cf1b59715355280090191625820c5be07d1a6343b260f9fd7f23df3a25f","input_sha256":"b0eaf9ba20af883f167d7308c8159d84398ad81dba935bebcc85c5aadbf40c69","limitations":["Rule-derived subjects are candidates, not verified editorial labels or calibrated model probabilities.","Coverage is distinct from event location. Unknown country/city/coordinates remain absent; no automatic geocoding.","Article geometries keep their stated precision and methodology; reproducing them is not independent coordinate verification."],"method":"controlled-rules-v1","places":[],"rules_sha256":"d28c9c89703b56bd91fd887965d416d0115c2473d4bfbd3e558bcceafc3941dd","schema_version":1,"subjects":[{"concept_id":"medtop:20001129","confidence":null,"confidence_method":null,"evidence":[{"field":"en.title+en.summary","language":"en","note":"Subject suggested from the title or summary: El Niño","source_urls":["https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027"]}],"method":"controlled-rules-v1","rule_id":"weather-phenomena","status":"candidate"},{"concept_id":"medtop:06000000","confidence":null,"confidence_method":null,"evidence":[{"field":"category+topics","language":"en","note":"Preserved editorial category/topic; broad candidate only","source_urls":["https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027"]}],"method":"controlled-rules-v1","rule_id":"climate-broad","status":"candidate"}],"taxonomy_revision":"1f2db31d811fca07e99b16d402c10e2cc2965c9df1c7b41d9be348b40a24e7fb","taxonomy_version":"IPTC Media Topics 2026-Q2"},"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027?lang=ar","category":"climate","content":{"key_points":[],"paragraphs":["قالت المنظمة العالمية للأرصاد الجوية في 3 سبتمبر إن إل نينيو قد ترسخ ومن المتوقع أن يصبح قويًا جدًا في الأشهر المقبلة. وقدّرت توقعات مراكز الإنتاج العالمية التابعة للمنظمة احتمال استمراره حتى فبراير 2027 بنحو 100%.","وقالت المنظمة إن دفء المحيط الهادئ الاستوائي بصورة استثنائية يدعم اشتداد الظاهرة، وإن تغير أنماط الأمطار والحرارة قد يزيد مخاطر الفيضانات والجفاف والحر الشديد. وهذا توقع قائم على النماذج، وليس تنبؤًا بكارثة محددة في مكان بعينه."],"sections":[]},"corrections":[{"at":"2026-10-07T00:53:36+03:00","language":"ar","text":"أُضيفت إلى هذا المقال نسختان بالألمانية والبرتغالية، مع ترجمة شروح البيانات والتصحيحات إلى هاتين اللغتين."},{"at":"2026-10-07T05:59:35+03:00","language":"ar","text":"أُضيف تصنيف للبيانات: يحمل كل رقم الآن معرّف قياس بوحدته ونطاقه الجغرافي وتواتره ونوعه. لم يتغير أي رقم أو وحدة أو تاريخ."}],"country":null,"data":{"blocks":[{"description":{"ar":"قياس أو توقع منشور في المصدر الرسمي.","de":"Von der amtlichen Quelle veröffentlichte Messgröße oder Prognose.","en":"Measurement or forecast published by the official source.","es":"Medición o previsión publicada por la fuente oficial.","fr":"Mesure ou prévision publiée par la source officielle.","pt":"Medida ou previsão publicada pela fonte oficial.","tr":"Resmi kaynakta yayımlanan ölçüm veya tahmin."},"id":"reported-figure","items":[{"basis":"forecast","label":{"ar":"احتمال استمرار إل نينيو حتى فبراير 2027","de":"WMO-Prognose: Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass El Niño bis Februar 2027 anhält","en":"WMO forecast likelihood El Niño persists through February 2027","es":"Probabilidad prevista de persistir hasta febrero de 2027","fr":"Probabilité prévue de persistance jusqu’en février 2027","pt":"Previsão da OMM: probabilidade de o El Niño persistir até fevereiro de 2027","tr":"WMO’ya göre El Niño’nun Şubat 2027’ye kadar sürme olasılığı"},"measure":{"aggregation":"rate","frequency":"irregular","geography":"world","id":"wmo-el-nino-persistence-probability","periodRole":"reference-period","unitCode":"percent"},"period":"2027-02","unit":"percent","value":100,"valueQualifier":"approximate"}],"methodology":{"ar":"يسجل القيمة والفترة الواردتين في المصدر دون تحويل أو توقع مستقل.","de":"Speichert den von der Quelle gemeldeten Wert und Zeitraum ohne Umrechnung oder unabhängige Prognose.","en":"Stores the source-reported value and period without conversion or an independent forecast.","es":"Registra el valor y el periodo indicados por la fuente, sin conversión ni pronóstico independiente.","fr":"Enregistre la valeur et la période indiquées par la source, sans conversion ni prévision indépendante.","pt":"Registra o valor e o período informados pela fonte, sem conversão nem previsão independente.","tr":"Kaynakta bildirilen değeri ve dönemi aynen kaydeder; dönüştürme veya bağımsız tahmin yapılmamıştır."},"sourceUrls":["https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027"],"title":{"ar":"القيمة الواردة في المصدر","de":"Von der Quelle gemeldete Kennzahl","en":"Source-reported figure","es":"Dato comunicado por la fuente","fr":"Valeur publiée par la source","pt":"Indicador informado pela fonte","tr":"Kaynakta bildirilen ölçüm"},"type":"metrics","updatedAt":"2026-10-07T00:53:36+03:00"}],"version":1},"data_downloads":[{"formats":{"csv":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027/data/reported-figure?lang=ar&format=csv","json":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027/data/reported-figure?lang=ar&format=json"},"id":"reported-figure"}],"data_types":["metrics"],"editorial_illustration":{"alt":"رسم توضيحي مفاهيمي للغلاف الجوي والمحيطات ورصد المناخ.","asset_id":"newsverum-v1-climate","avif_variants":[{"height":320,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-480.avif","width":480},{"height":480,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-720.avif","width":720},{"height":640,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-960.avif","width":960},{"height":800,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-1200.avif","width":1200},{"height":1024,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-1536.avif","width":1536}],"credit":"Newsverum","documentary":false,"height":1024,"kind":"symbolic-editorial-illustration","language":"ar","scope":"topic","url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-1536.webp","variants":[{"height":320,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-480.webp","width":480},{"height":640,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-960.webp","width":960},{"height":1024,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-1536.webp","width":1536}],"width":1536},"event_id":"event-b93be3ff-e02e-5ee1-a58e-fd994322ac33","event_period":"2026-08","event_period_basis":"event-or-reference-period","id":"wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027","image":null,"importance":0.6,"language":"ar","modified_at":"2026-10-07T05:59:35+03:00","publication_basis":"publication-record","published_at":"2026-10-06T08:59:02+00:00","reading_minutes":1,"region":"world","section_illustration":{"alt":"رسم توضيحي مفاهيمي للغلاف الجوي والمحيطات ورصد المناخ.","asset_id":"newsverum-v1-climate","avif_variants":[{"height":320,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-480.avif","width":480},{"height":480,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-720.avif","width":720},{"height":640,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-960.avif","width":960},{"height":800,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-1200.avif","width":1200},{"height":1024,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-1536.avif","width":1536}],"credit":"Newsverum","documentary":false,"height":1024,"kind":"symbolic-editorial-illustration","language":"ar","scope":"section","url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-1536.webp","variants":[{"height":320,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-480.webp","width":480},{"height":640,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-960.webp","width":960},{"height":1024,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-1536.webp","width":1536}],"width":1536},"slug":"wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027","sources":[{"checkedAt":"2026-10-06","name":"World Meteorological Organization","publishedAt":"2026-09-03","url":"https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027"}],"summary":"توقّع تحديث أغسطس للمنظمة مزيدًا من اشتداد إل نينيو واحتمالًا يقارب 100% لاستمراره حتى فبراير 2027.","text":"توقّع تحديث أغسطس للمنظمة مزيدًا من اشتداد إل نينيو واحتمالًا يقارب 100% لاستمراره حتى فبراير 2027.\n\nقالت المنظمة العالمية للأرصاد الجوية في 3 سبتمبر إن إل نينيو قد ترسخ ومن المتوقع أن يصبح قويًا جدًا في الأشهر المقبلة. وقدّرت توقعات مراكز الإنتاج العالمية التابعة للمنظمة احتمال استمراره حتى فبراير 2027 بنحو 100%.\n\nوقالت المنظمة إن دفء المحيط الهادئ الاستوائي بصورة استثنائية يدعم اشتداد الظاهرة، وإن تغير أنماط الأمطار والحرارة قد يزيد مخاطر الفيضانات والجفاف والحر الشديد. وهذا توقع قائم على النماذج، وليس تنبؤًا بكارثة محددة في مكان بعينه.\n\nأُضيفت إلى هذا المقال نسختان بالألمانية والبرتغالية، مع ترجمة شروح البيانات والتصحيحات إلى هاتين اللغتين.\n\nأُضيف تصنيف للبيانات: يحمل كل رقم الآن معرّف قياس بوحدته ونطاقه الجغرافي وتواتره ونوعه. لم يتغير أي رقم أو وحدة أو تاريخ.","title":"المنظمة العالمية للأرصاد ترجح استمرار إل نينيو حتى فبراير 2027","topics":[],"translations":[{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027?lang=tr","language":"tr","url":"https://newsverum.com/tr/news/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027?lang=en","language":"en","url":"https://newsverum.com/en/news/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027?lang=ar","language":"ar","url":"https://newsverum.com/ar/news/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027?lang=fr","language":"fr","url":"https://newsverum.com/fr/news/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027?lang=es","language":"es","url":"https://newsverum.com/es/news/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027?lang=de","language":"de","url":"https://newsverum.com/de/news/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027?lang=pt","language":"pt","url":"https://newsverum.com/pt/news/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027"}],"url":"https://newsverum.com/ar/news/wmo-el-nino-update-forecasts-persistence-through-february-2027"},"version":"1"}