{"article":{"annotation":{"article_id":"university-of-michigan-october-2026-sentiment-stays-low-inflation-expectations-rise","available_at":"2026-10-25T15:35:55.699365Z","geography_revision":"ef6ee0010dda5fe7b240fd514749b43e214c57da73222d2e40ec83b276dd0977","id":"3715c3de931b01045522027c0b9efe4281ac2bd564d1524ff4ce3559c8151cb2","input_sha256":"90f0bb40fbcd144093a1972161eb582e05ec956aece34e77fface7cb98f749e7","limitations":["Rule-derived subjects are candidates, not verified editorial labels or calibrated model probabilities.","Coverage is distinct from event location. Unknown country/city/coordinates remain absent; no automatic geocoding.","Article geometries keep their stated precision and methodology; reproducing them is not independent coordinate verification."],"method":"controlled-rules-v1","places":[{"admin1":null,"city":null,"coordinate_note":null,"coordinate_reference_system":"OGC:CRS84","coordinate_source":null,"country":"US","evidence":[{"field":"country","language":"en","note":"Explicit preserved editorial country/region; no city or national centroid inferred","source_urls":["https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/","https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=82238"]}],"geometry":null,"id":"iso3166-1:US","kind":"country-or-area","labels":{"ar":"الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية","en":"United States of America","es":"Estados Unidos de América","fr":"États-Unis d’Amérique"},"match_status":"candidate","precision":"regional","role":"coverage","uncertainty_m":null}],"rules_sha256":"fb5ad3c27c91cb840f7a0a05f7f64a5cb26ad0374409ff9457f277c7092e22b4","schema_version":1,"subjects":[{"concept_id":"medtop:20000370","confidence":null,"confidence_method":null,"evidence":[{"field":"en.title+en.summary","language":"en","note":"Subject suggested from the title or summary: inflation","source_urls":["https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/","https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=82238"]}],"method":"controlled-rules-v1","rule_id":"inflation","status":"candidate"},{"concept_id":"medtop:20000352","confidence":null,"confidence_method":null,"evidence":[{"field":"en.title+en.summary","language":"en","note":"Subject suggested from the title or summary: consumer sentiment","source_urls":["https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/","https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=82238"]}],"method":"controlled-rules-v1","rule_id":"consumer-confidence","status":"candidate"}],"taxonomy_revision":"1f2db31d811fca07e99b16d402c10e2cc2965c9df1c7b41d9be348b40a24e7fb","taxonomy_version":"IPTC Media Topics 2026-Q2"},"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/university-of-michigan-october-2026-sentiment-stays-low-inflation-expectations-rise?lang=en","category":"economy","content":{"key_points":[],"paragraphs":["Final results published on 23 October by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers put the Index of Consumer Sentiment at 48.0, compared with 48.1 in September. It was 53.6 in October 2025, a year-on-year decline of 10.4%. The Current Economic Conditions index fell from 50.9 to 46.7, down 8.3% month on month and 20.3% from a year earlier. The Index of Consumer Expectations moved in the opposite direction, rising from 46.3 to 48.8. That was a 5.4% monthly increase but remained 3% below its October 2025 level of 50.3.","Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said sentiment was only one-tenth of an index point below September. Gains among Republicans and Democrats were balanced by declines among independents. Year-ahead business-condition expectations improved about 14%, but remained 16% below last October. Hsu said the decline in current conditions was driven entirely by an 18% plunge in buying conditions for durable goods, which respondents related to higher interest rates and concerns about affordability. Purchasing power continued to dominate views of the economy. Overall sentiment was 10% below a year earlier and 15% below February, the month before the Iran conflict began, according to the survey commentary.","Median year-ahead inflation expectations ticked up to 4.7% from 4.6% in September. The survey team said the reading substantially exceeded February’s 3.4% and every reading in 2024. Long-run expectations rose to 3.5% from 3.4%, above the 2.8–3.2% range recorded during 2024. Expectations at both horizons increased for a second consecutive month and reached their highest levels since May.","A companion special report, published on the same day, set long-run expectations against a longer historical comparison. It compared the parallel web data collection used from 2017 through 2024 with the 2026 web interviews to provide a methodologically consistent view. The report cited average monthly sample sizes of 209 in 2019, 877 in 2024 and more than 1,000 in 2026. It said its findings were strengthened when recent readings were compared with the narrower three-month moving-average range for 2024, and that they also held against the historical official telephone collection used through mid-2024. The report described expectations easing after a 2025 tariff-policy shock and then rising again in 2026 as the Iran conflict lengthened and energy prices climbed. It cautioned that elevated expectations can become entrenched, while saying this is a risk rather than an inevitable outcome."],"sections":[]},"corrections":[],"country":"US","data":{"blocks":[{"columns":[{"key":"indicator","label":{"en":"Indicator","tr":"Gösterge"},"language":"en","type":"text"},{"key":"value","label":{"en":"Reported value","tr":"Bildirilen değer"},"language":"en","type":"text"}],"description":{"en":"Index values and inflation expectations are from the final survey release; historical sample sizes are from the companion special report.","tr":"Endeks değerleri ile enflasyon beklentileri final anket açıklamasından; tarihsel örneklem büyüklükleri eşlik eden özel rapordan aktarılmıştır."},"id":"michigan-october-consumer-survey","methodology":{"en":"Index points, rate changes and average monthly sample counts for different periods are kept separate as reported.","tr":"Kaynakta farklı aylar için verilen endeks puanları, oran değişimleri ve aylık ortalama örneklem sayıları ayrı tutulmuştur."},"rowTranslations":[{"indicator":{"en":"Index of Consumer Sentiment","tr":"Tüketici hissiyatı endeksi"},"value":{"en":"48.0 in Oct 2026; 48.1 in Sep 2026; 53.6 in Oct 2025","tr":"2026 Ekim 48,0; 2026 Eylül 48,1; 2025 Ekim 53,6"}},{"indicator":{"en":"Current Economic Conditions","tr":"Mevcut ekonomik koşullar"},"value":{"en":"46.7 in Oct 2026; 50.9 in Sep 2026; 58.6 in Oct 2025","tr":"2026 Ekim 46,7; 2026 Eylül 50,9; 2025 Ekim 58,6"}},{"indicator":{"en":"Index of Consumer Expectations","tr":"Tüketici beklentileri endeksi"},"value":{"en":"48.8 in Oct 2026; 46.3 in Sep 2026; 50.3 in Oct 2025","tr":"2026 Ekim 48,8; 2026 Eylül 46,3; 2025 Ekim 50,3"}},{"indicator":{"en":"Year-ahead inflation expectation","tr":"Bir yıllık enflasyon beklentisi"},"value":{"en":"4.7% in Oct 2026; 4.6% in Sep 2026","tr":"2026 Ekim yüzde 4,7; 2026 Eylül yüzde 4,6"}},{"indicator":{"en":"Long-run inflation expectation","tr":"Uzun vadeli enflasyon beklentisi"},"value":{"en":"3.5% in Oct 2026; 3.4% in Sep 2026","tr":"2026 Ekim yüzde 3,5; 2026 Eylül yüzde 3,4"}},{"indicator":{"en":"Historical web survey sample sizes","tr":"Tarihsel web anketi örneklem büyüklükleri"},"value":{"en":"Monthly averages: 209 in 2019; 877 in 2024; over 1,000 in 2026","tr":"Aylık ortalama: 2019’da 209; 2024’te 877; 2026’da 1.000’den fazla"}}],"rows":[{"indicator":"Index of Consumer Sentiment","value":"48.0 in Oct 2026; 48.1 in Sep 2026; 53.6 in Oct 2025"},{"indicator":"Current Economic Conditions","value":"46.7 in Oct 2026; 50.9 in Sep 2026; 58.6 in Oct 2025"},{"indicator":"Index of Consumer Expectations","value":"48.8 in Oct 2026; 46.3 in Sep 2026; 50.3 in Oct 2025"},{"indicator":"Year-ahead inflation expectation","value":"4.7% in Oct 2026; 4.6% in Sep 2026"},{"indicator":"Long-run inflation expectation","value":"3.5% in Oct 2026; 3.4% in Sep 2026"},{"indicator":"Historical web survey sample sizes","value":"Monthly averages: 209 in 2019; 877 in 2024; over 1,000 in 2026"}],"sourceUrls":["https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/","https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=82238"],"title":{"en":"University of Michigan October 2026 consumer survey","tr":"Michigan Üniversitesi Ekim 2026 tüketici anketi"},"type":"table","updatedAt":"2026-10-25T15:32:43Z"}],"version":1},"data_downloads":[{"formats":{"csv":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/university-of-michigan-october-2026-sentiment-stays-low-inflation-expectations-rise/data/michigan-october-consumer-survey?lang=en&format=csv","json":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/university-of-michigan-october-2026-sentiment-stays-low-inflation-expectations-rise/data/michigan-october-consumer-survey?lang=en&format=json"},"id":"michigan-october-consumer-survey"}],"data_types":["table"],"editorial_illustration":{"alt":"Conceptual illustration of the global economy and trade 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of Michigan, Surveys of Consumers","publishedAt":"2026-10-23","url":"https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/"},{"checkedAt":"2026-10-25","name":"University of Michigan, Risks of Entrenchment: Long-Run Inflation Expectations in Recent and Longer Historical Context","publishedAt":"2026-10-23","url":"https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=82238"}],"summary":"The University of Michigan’s final October survey put consumer sentiment at 48.0, little changed from September. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7% and long-run expectations to 3.5%, while the current-conditions index declined.","text":"The University of Michigan’s final October survey put consumer sentiment at 48.0, little changed from September. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7% and long-run expectations to 3.5%, while the current-conditions index declined.\n\nFinal results published on 23 October by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers put the Index of Consumer Sentiment at 48.0, compared with 48.1 in September. It was 53.6 in October 2025, a year-on-year decline of 10.4%. The Current Economic Conditions index fell from 50.9 to 46.7, down 8.3% month on month and 20.3% from a year earlier. The Index of Consumer Expectations moved in the opposite direction, rising from 46.3 to 48.8. That was a 5.4% monthly increase but remained 3% below its October 2025 level of 50.3.\n\nJoanne Hsu, director of the survey, said sentiment was only one-tenth of an index point below September. Gains among Republicans and Democrats were balanced by declines among independents. Year-ahead business-condition expectations improved about 14%, but remained 16% below last October. Hsu said the decline in current conditions was driven entirely by an 18% plunge in buying conditions for durable goods, which respondents related to higher interest rates and concerns about affordability. Purchasing power continued to dominate views of the economy. Overall sentiment was 10% below a year earlier and 15% below February, the month before the Iran conflict began, according to the survey commentary.\n\nMedian year-ahead inflation expectations ticked up to 4.7% from 4.6% in September. The survey team said the reading substantially exceeded February’s 3.4% and every reading in 2024. Long-run expectations rose to 3.5% from 3.4%, above the 2.8–3.2% range recorded during 2024. Expectations at both horizons increased for a second consecutive month and reached their highest levels since May.\n\nA companion special report, published on the same day, set long-run expectations against a longer historical comparison. It compared the parallel web data collection used from 2017 through 2024 with the 2026 web interviews to provide a methodologically consistent view. The report cited average monthly sample sizes of 209 in 2019, 877 in 2024 and more than 1,000 in 2026. It said its findings were strengthened when recent readings were compared with the narrower three-month moving-average range for 2024, and that they also held against the historical official telephone collection used through mid-2024. The report described expectations easing after a 2025 tariff-policy shock and then rising again in 2026 as the Iran conflict lengthened and energy prices climbed. It cautioned that elevated expectations can become entrenched, while saying this is a risk rather than an inevitable outcome.","title":"Michigan survey finds consumer sentiment subdued as inflation expectations rise","topics":[],"translations":[{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/university-of-michigan-october-2026-sentiment-stays-low-inflation-expectations-rise?lang=tr","language":"tr","url":"https://newsverum.com/tr/news/university-of-michigan-october-2026-sentiment-stays-low-inflation-expectations-rise"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/university-of-michigan-october-2026-sentiment-stays-low-inflation-expectations-rise?lang=en","language":"en","url":"https://newsverum.com/en/news/university-of-michigan-october-2026-sentiment-stays-low-inflation-expectations-rise"}],"url":"https://newsverum.com/en/news/university-of-michigan-october-2026-sentiment-stays-low-inflation-expectations-rise"},"version":"1"}