{"article":{"annotation":{"article_id":"france-leek-production-forecast-2026-2027","available_at":"2026-10-26T00:12:42.406509Z","geography_revision":"ef6ee0010dda5fe7b240fd514749b43e214c57da73222d2e40ec83b276dd0977","id":"54f62afea82702680c9e452f50125d9d2b946f9b1eb8adb9531d7b34547f1975","input_sha256":"c093e19a89572a06421f3b342ea9aeff1c3fccf3852b211e9d94c282fff837f6","limitations":["Rule-derived subjects are candidates, not verified editorial labels or calibrated model probabilities.","Coverage is distinct from event location. Unknown country/city/coordinates remain absent; no automatic geocoding.","Article geometries keep their stated precision and methodology; reproducing them is not independent coordinate verification."],"method":"controlled-rules-v1","places":[{"admin1":null,"city":null,"coordinate_note":null,"coordinate_reference_system":"OGC:CRS84","coordinate_source":null,"country":"FR","evidence":[{"field":"country","language":"en","note":"Explicit preserved editorial country/region; no city or national centroid inferred","source_urls":["https://agreste.agriculture.gouv.fr/agreste-web/disaron/IraLeg28135/detail/"]}],"geometry":null,"id":"iso3166-1:FR","kind":"country-or-area","labels":{"ar":"فرنسا","en":"France","es":"Francia","fr":"France"},"match_status":"candidate","precision":"regional","role":"coverage","uncertainty_m":null}],"rules_sha256":"fb5ad3c27c91cb840f7a0a05f7f64a5cb26ad0374409ff9457f277c7092e22b4","schema_version":1,"subjects":[{"concept_id":"medtop:20000210","confidence":null,"confidence_method":null,"evidence":[{"field":"category+topics","language":"en","note":"Preserved editorial category/topic; broad candidate only","source_urls":["https://agreste.agriculture.gouv.fr/agreste-web/disaron/IraLeg28135/detail/"]}],"method":"controlled-rules-v1","rule_id":"agriculture-broad","status":"candidate"}],"taxonomy_revision":"1f2db31d811fca07e99b16d402c10e2cc2965c9df1c7b41d9be348b40a24e7fb","taxonomy_version":"IPTC Media Topics 2026-Q2"},"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/france-leek-production-forecast-2026-2027?lang=en","category":"agriculture","content":{"key_points":[],"paragraphs":["France’s leek production is forecast at 134,700 tonnes for the 2026–2027 campaign, 19,700 tonnes below the previous season. The agriculture ministry’s statistical service, Agreste, published the estimate on 23 October, using information collected through late September and fixed as of 1 October. It projects output 13% below 2025–2026 and 17% below the average of the five campaigns from 2021–2022 to 2025–2026. Agreste cautions that the projection still needs refinement because the effects of this summer’s heatwaves on the full campaign are difficult to assess at this point. The headline number is therefore a forecast, not a completed national harvest total.","The report attributes the expected reduction principally to yields, describing plant growth as slow or halted after successive summer heat episodes. National planted area is forecast at 5,382 hectares, down 2% from the previous campaign and 1% from the five-campaign average. That smaller area contributes to the outlook, but the forecast’s larger percentage decline in production signals that acreage alone does not explain the projected shortfall. Agreste’s basin table shows declines in every surveyed production basin: the north at 21,000 tonnes, 13% lower year on year; the west at 40,800 tonnes, down 15%; the centre-west at 36,600 tonnes, down 14%; and the south-east at 20,200 tonnes, down 8%. Other basins account for 16,200 tonnes. Together, the rounded estimates equal the France total.","September offers a measure of the pressure late-season crops faced. Tonnage harvested that month is expected to be 28% lower than in September 2025, a month when more substantial volumes ordinarily return to the market. Rainfall returned, but Agreste says it was insufficient to make up the water deficit. Losses were greater on plots without access to irrigation, while dry conditions also favored thrips attacks. The report says leeks could be small, require additional trimming or, in some cases, fail commercial standards. These are reported production and quality risks; the source does not quantify how many farms lacked irrigation, the extent of pest damage or how much output was rejected. It expects the production deficit to remain noticeable through the campaign.","Supply constraints coincided with higher producer prices at the end of summer. The report says leek prices in August were 53% above August 2025 and 49% above the five-year August average for 2021–2025. The elevated level carried into September, when the producer-price index was 53% above September 2025 and 55% above the average for September 2022–2026. The first comparison in the publication’s summary appears to use 2026 as its prior-year reference; the detailed text and chart label compare September 2026 with September 2025. This draft follows the detailed period labels and interprets the quoted percentage as a year-on-year comparison. Agreste notes that prices adjusted progressively during September, so the monthly comparison does not mean every day or transaction was at the same premium.","The campaign’s start had a different balance. May’s relatively wet weather supported the movement of early leek volumes. In June, however, hot temperatures limited consumer interest: average prices for the month were 14% below June 2025 and 17% below the five-year average. In July, limited supply kept prices close to the average of the preceding five campaigns. August then brought a stronger rise as moderate supply met firm demand. The sequence shows why one annual price figure would flatten the market’s changing conditions. Agreste reports monthly producer-price index values on a base of 100 in 2020; these are index comparisons, not absolute prices per kilogram or retail prices. The release supplies a seasonal account but does not identify consumer purchases, individual contracts or margins after production costs.","Trade volumes point to a widening gap in the opening months, but the product definition is broader than leeks alone. From May through August 2026, France exported 3,700 tonnes of leeks and other allium vegetables, 2% less than in the same period of the prior campaign. Imports were 6,900 tonnes, 49% higher. The resulting trade deficit by volume was about 3,200 tonnes, 2,400 tonnes larger year on year. Customs data are used for these comparisons. The figures describe cross-border quantities during four months, not full-year trade, domestic consumption or the amount of French-grown leek available to retailers. Because other alliums are included, they cannot be used as a leek-only import dependency rate.","The national forecast relies on regional samples of quantitative and qualitative observations. The survey covers six regions, grouped into four climate-based production basins, and represented 79% of French leek output in 2025. The report identifies Nord-Pas-de-Calais for the north, Basse-Normandie and Brittany for the west, Centre and Pays-de-la-Loire for the centre-west, and Rhône-Alpes for the south-east, using the pre-2016 22-region classification. For unobserved regions within a surveyed basin, the service extrapolates from the previous campaign’s Annual Agricultural Statistics; it similarly extrapolates non-surveyed basins to reach an estimate for France outside the overseas departments and regions. The method supports a timely forecast, but the national figure is not a census of each producer or field.","Area accounting also differs from a simple count of unique farmland. Agreste defines the reported hectares as developed area, counting a surface each time it is rotated into and harvested for the crop during a campaign. Comparisons should therefore preserve that convention. The campaign runs from May 2026 to April 2027, and the estimate assumes no unusual event changes the remainder of the season. That assumption matters especially in a report that stresses uncertainty: the service says the summer heatwave’s complete effect remains difficult to evaluate. Later observations could refine the production total, basin distribution and price picture. The October release provides a structured snapshot based on data available by early autumn, while explicitly leaving room for revision rather than presenting 134,700 tonnes as settled fact.","For growers and buyers, the report’s central finding is a forecast of sustained tighter availability, with several distinct sources of pressure: a 2% reduction in planted area, heat-damaged growth, persistent water deficit, lower September harvest volume and quality problems affecting size and trimming. The market response is visible in producer-price indexes that rose sharply in August and remained elevated in September, even as June prices had been below their earlier-season comparisons. Trade data show more imports and a slightly lower export volume in the campaign’s first four months, but those allium figures should not be conflated with leek-only supply. Agreste’s data do not measure farm profitability, retail pass-through, irrigation investment or the causal contribution of each stressor. The final harvest and later price releases are needed to test the October outlook."],"sections":[]},"corrections":[{"at":"2026-10-26T03:04:54+03:00","language":"en","text":"Full Arabic, French, Spanish, German and Portuguese translations and data labels were added."}],"country":"FR","data":{"blocks":[{"description":{"ar":"تقديرات Agreste لفرنسا باستثناء الأقاليم والمناطق الخارجية، وفق بيانات 1 أكتوبر 2026.","de":"Schätzungen von Agreste für Frankreich ohne Überseedepartements und -regionen, Stand 1. Oktober 2026.","en":"Agreste estimates for France outside the overseas departments and regions, as of 1 October 2026.","es":"Estimaciones de Agreste para Francia, excluidos los departamentos y regiones de ultramar, al 1 de octubre de 2026.","fr":"Estimations d’Agreste pour la France hors départements et régions d’outre-mer, arrêtées au 1er octobre 2026.","pt":"Estimativas do Agreste para a França, excluídos os departamentos e regiões ultramarinos, com referência a 1º de outubro de 2026.","tr":"Agreste'nin 1 Ekim 2026 itibarıyla Fransa'nın DROM dışındaki pırasa kampanyası için tahminleri."},"id":"france-leek-2026-2027-forecast","items":[{"basis":"forecast","label":{"ar":"إنتاج الكراث في موسم 2026–2027","de":"Lauchproduktion, Saison 2026–2027","en":"Leek production, 2026–2027 campaign","es":"Producción de puerros, campaña 2026–2027","fr":"Production de poireaux, campagne 2026-2027","pt":"Produção de alho-poró, safra 2026–2027","tr":"2026-2027 kampanyasında pırasa üretimi"},"measure":{"aggregation":"cumulative","frequency":"irregular","geography":"france","id":"france-leek-production","periodRole":"reference-period","unitCode":"tonne"},"period":"2027-04","periodStart":"2026-05","unit":"tonnes","value":134700},{"basis":"forecast","label":{"ar":"تغير الإنتاج عن موسم 2025–2026","de":"Veränderung der Produktion gegenüber der Saison 2025–2026","en":"Production change from the 2025–2026 campaign","es":"Variación de la producción respecto de la campaña 2025–2026","fr":"Évolution de la production par rapport à la campagne 2025-2026","pt":"Variação da produção em relação à safra 2025–2026","tr":"2025-2026 kampanyasına göre üretim değişimi"},"measure":{"aggregation":"change","frequency":"irregular","geography":"france","id":"france-leek-production-change-vs-prior-campaign","periodRole":"reference-period","unitCode":"percent"},"period":"2027-04","periodStart":"2026-05","unit":"percent","value":-13},{"basis":"forecast","label":{"ar":"تغير الإنتاج عن متوسط المواسم الخمسة من 2021–2022 إلى 2025–2026","de":"Veränderung der Produktion gegenüber dem Durchschnitt der fünf Saisons 2021–2022 bis 2025–2026","en":"Production change from the 2021–2022 to 2025–2026 five-campaign average","es":"Variación de la producción respecto del promedio de cinco campañas, de 2021–2022 a 2025–2026","fr":"Évolution de la production par rapport à la moyenne des cinq campagnes de 2021-2022 à 2025-2026","pt":"Variação da produção em relação à média das cinco safras de 2021–2022 a 2025–2026","tr":"2021-2022–2025-2026 beş kampanya ortalamasına göre üretim değişimi"},"measure":{"aggregation":"change","frequency":"irregular","geography":"france","id":"france-leek-production-change-vs-five-campaign-average","periodRole":"reference-period","unitCode":"percent"},"period":"2027-04","periodStart":"2026-05","unit":"percent","value":-17},{"basis":"forecast","label":{"ar":"مساحة الكراث في موسم 2026–2027","de":"Lauchfläche, Saison 2026–2027","en":"Leek area, 2026–2027 campaign","es":"Superficie de puerros, campaña 2026–2027","fr":"Superficie en poireaux, campagne 2026-2027","pt":"Área de alho-poró, safra 2026–2027","tr":"2026-2027 kampanyası pırasa ekili alanı"},"measure":{"aggregation":"cumulative","frequency":"irregular","geography":"france","id":"france-leek-area","periodRole":"reference-period","unitCode":"hectare"},"period":"2027-04","periodStart":"2026-05","unit":"hectares","value":5382},{"basis":"forecast","label":{"ar":"تغير حجم المحصول المحصود في سبتمبر 2026 عن سبتمبر 2025","de":"Veränderung der im September 2026 geernteten Menge gegenüber September 2025","en":"Change in September 2026 harvested volume from September 2025","es":"Variación del volumen cosechado en septiembre de 2026 respecto de septiembre de 2025","fr":"Évolution du volume récolté en septembre 2026 par rapport à septembre 2025","pt":"Variação do volume colhido em setembro de 2026 em relação a setembro de 2025","tr":"Eylül 2026 hasat miktarının Eylül 2025'e göre değişimi"},"measure":{"aggregation":"change","frequency":"monthly","geography":"france","id":"france-leek-september-harvest-change-vs-prior-year","periodRole":"reference-period","unitCode":"percent"},"period":"2026-09","unit":"percent","value":-28},{"basis":"observed","label":{"ar":"تغير مؤشر أسعار المنتجين في سبتمبر 2026 عن سبتمبر 2025","de":"Veränderung des Erzeugerpreisindex im September 2026 gegenüber September 2025","en":"Change in September 2026 producer price index from September 2025","es":"Variación del índice de precios al productor de septiembre de 2026 respecto de septiembre de 2025","fr":"Évolution de l’indice des prix à la production de septembre 2026 par rapport à septembre 2025","pt":"Variação do índice de preços ao produtor de setembro de 2026 em relação a setembro de 2025","tr":"Eylül 2026 üretici fiyat endeksinin Eylül 2025'e göre değişimi"},"measure":{"aggregation":"change","frequency":"monthly","geography":"france","id":"france-leek-producer-price-index-change-vs-prior-year","periodRole":"reference-period","unitCode":"percent"},"period":"2026-09","unit":"percent","value":53},{"basis":"observed","label":{"ar":"صادرات الكراث والثوميات الأخرى، مايو–أغسطس 2026","de":"Exporte von Lauch und anderem Lauchgemüse, Mai–August 2026","en":"Leek and other allium exports, May–August 2026","es":"Exportaciones de puerros y otras aliáceas, mayo–agosto de 2026","fr":"Exportations de poireaux et d’autres légumes alliacés, mai-août 2026","pt":"Exportações de alho-poró e outros vegetais do gênero Allium, maio a agosto de 2026","tr":"Mayıs-Ağustos 2026 pırasa ve diğer soğanlı sebze ihracatı"},"measure":{"aggregation":"cumulative","frequency":"monthly","geography":"france","id":"france-leek-allium-exports","periodRole":"reference-period","unitCode":"tonne"},"period":"2026-08","periodStart":"2026-05","unit":"tonnes","value":3700},{"basis":"observed","label":{"ar":"واردات الكراث والثوميات الأخرى، مايو–أغسطس 2026","de":"Importe von Lauch und anderem Lauchgemüse, Mai–August 2026","en":"Leek and other allium imports, May–August 2026","es":"Importaciones de puerros y otras aliáceas, mayo–agosto de 2026","fr":"Importations de poireaux et d’autres légumes alliacés, mai-août 2026","pt":"Importações de alho-poró e outros vegetais do gênero Allium, maio a agosto de 2026","tr":"Mayıs-Ağustos 2026 pırasa ve diğer soğanlı sebze ithalatı"},"measure":{"aggregation":"cumulative","frequency":"monthly","geography":"france","id":"france-leek-allium-imports","periodRole":"reference-period","unitCode":"tonne"},"period":"2026-08","periodStart":"2026-05","unit":"tonnes","value":6900}],"methodology":{"ar":"نُقلت الأرقام من التقرير السريع الصادر عن Agreste في 23 أكتوبر. وتستخدم التوقعات عينات إقليمية من ملاحظات كمية ونوعية، وتفترض ألا يؤثر حدث استثنائي في بقية الموسم. وتحدد تسميات المقاييس فترات مقارنة التغيرات المئوية. وتشمل أحجام التجارة الكراث وخضراوات الثوميات الأخرى، وتستند إلى بيانات الجمارك الفرنسية.","de":"Die Zahlen sind dem vorläufigen Bericht von Agreste vom 23. Oktober entnommen. Prognosen beruhen auf regionalen Stichproben quantitativer und qualitativer Beobachtungen und setzen voraus, dass kein außergewöhnliches Ereignis den Rest der Saison beeinträchtigt. Vergleichszeiträume bei prozentualen Veränderungen sind in den Kennzahlbezeichnungen angegeben. Handelsmengen umfassen Lauch und anderes Lauchgemüse und stammen aus französischen Zolldaten.","en":"Figures are transcribed from Agreste's 23 October rapid report. Forecasts use regional samples of quantitative and qualitative observations and assume no exceptional event affects the remainder of the campaign. Comparison periods for percentage changes are specified in metric labels. Trade volumes combine leeks and other allium vegetables and come from French customs data.","es":"Las cifras se transcriben del informe rápido de Agreste del 23 de octubre. Los pronósticos utilizan muestras regionales de observaciones cuantitativas y cualitativas y suponen que ningún acontecimiento excepcional afectará al resto de la campaña. Las etiquetas de cada indicador especifican los períodos de comparación de las variaciones porcentuales. Los volúmenes comerciales combinan puerros y otras hortalizas aliáceas y proceden de datos aduaneros franceses.","fr":"Les chiffres sont transcrits du rapport conjoncturel d’Agreste du 23 octobre. Les prévisions reposent sur des échantillons régionaux d’observations quantitatives et qualitatives et supposent qu’aucun événement exceptionnel ne modifiera le reste de la campagne. Les périodes de comparaison des variations en pourcentage sont précisées dans les libellés des mesures. Les volumes commerciaux regroupent les poireaux et d’autres légumes alliacés et proviennent des données des douanes françaises.","pt":"Os valores são transcritos do relatório rápido do Agreste de 23 de outubro. As previsões usam amostras regionais de observações quantitativas e qualitativas e pressupõem que nenhum evento excepcional afete o restante da safra. Os períodos de comparação das variações percentuais estão especificados nos rótulos das métricas. Os volumes de comércio combinam alho-poró e outros vegetais do gênero Allium e vêm de dados aduaneiros franceses.","tr":"Rakamlar Agreste'nin 23 Ekim tarihli hızlı bilgi notundan alınmıştır. Tahminler bölgesel nicel ve nitel gözlem örneklemlerine dayanır; kampanyanın kalanında olağan dışı bir olay yaşanmayacağı varsayılır. Yüzde farklarının karşılaştırma dönemi ölçü etiketlerinde belirtilmiştir. Dış ticaret miktarları, pırasa ve diğer soğanlı sebzeleri birlikte içerir ve Fransa gümrük verilerine dayanır."},"sourceUrls":["https://agreste.agriculture.gouv.fr/agreste-web/disaron/IraLeg28135/detail/"],"title":{"ar":"توقع موسم الكراث 2026–2027","de":"Prognose für die Lauchsaison 2026–2027","en":"2026–2027 leek campaign forecast","es":"Pronóstico de la campaña de puerros 2026–2027","fr":"Prévision pour la campagne de poireaux 2026-2027","pt":"Previsão da safra de alho-poró 2026–2027","tr":"2026-2027 pırasa kampanyası tahmini"},"type":"metrics","updatedAt":"2026-10-26T03:04:54+03:00"}],"version":1},"data_downloads":[{"formats":{"csv":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/france-leek-production-forecast-2026-2027/data/france-leek-2026-2027-forecast?lang=en&format=csv","json":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/france-leek-production-forecast-2026-2027/data/france-leek-2026-2027-forecast?lang=en&format=json"},"id":"france-leek-2026-2027-forecast"}],"data_types":["metrics"],"editorial_illustration":{"alt":"Conceptual illustration of fields, soil and irrigation data.","asset_id":"newsverum-v1-agriculture","avif_variants":[{"height":320,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/agriculture-480.avif","width":480},{"height":480,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/agriculture-720.avif","width":720},{"height":640,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/agriculture-960.avif","width":960},{"height":800,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/agriculture-1200.avif","width":1200},{"height":1024,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/agriculture-1536.avif","width":1536}],"credit":"Newsverum","documentary":false,"height":1024,"kind":"symbolic-editorial-illustration","language":"en","scope":"topic","url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/agriculture-1536.webp","variants":[{"height":320,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/agriculture-480.webp","width":480},{"height":640,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/agriculture-960.webp","width":960},{"height":1024,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/agriculture-1536.webp","width":1536}],"width":1536},"event_id":"event-076fe92d-ce3f-5d82-8f55-c15472fca667","event_period":"2026-10-01","event_period_basis":"event-or-reference-period","id":"france-leek-production-forecast-2026-2027","image":null,"importance":0.6,"language":"en","modified_at":"2026-10-26T03:04:54+03:00","publication_basis":"publication-record","published_at":"2026-10-25T23:04:28+00:00","reading_minutes":6,"region":"world","section_illustration":{"alt":"Conceptual illustration of fields, soil and irrigation data.","asset_id":"newsverum-v1-agriculture","avif_variants":[{"height":320,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/agriculture-480.avif","width":480},{"height":480,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/agriculture-720.avif","width":720},{"height":640,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/agriculture-960.avif","width":960},{"height":800,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/agriculture-1200.avif","width":1200},{"height":1024,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/agriculture-1536.avif","width":1536}],"credit":"Newsverum","documentary":false,"height":1024,"kind":"symbolic-editorial-illustration","language":"en","scope":"section","url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/agriculture-1536.webp","variants":[{"height":320,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/agriculture-480.webp","width":480},{"height":640,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/agriculture-960.webp","width":960},{"height":1024,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/agriculture-1536.webp","width":1536}],"width":1536},"slug":"france-leek-production-forecast-2026-2027","sources":[{"checkedAt":"2026-10-26","name":"Agreste, French Ministry of Agriculture statistical service","publishedAt":"2026-10-23","url":"https://agreste.agriculture.gouv.fr/agreste-web/disaron/IraLeg28135/detail/"}],"summary":"Agreste forecasts 134,700 tonnes of leeks for 2026–2027, with heat-related yield losses and dry conditions constraining supply; the estimate remains provisional.","text":"Agreste forecasts 134,700 tonnes of leeks for 2026–2027, with heat-related yield losses and dry conditions constraining supply; the estimate remains provisional.\n\nFrance’s leek production is forecast at 134,700 tonnes for the 2026–2027 campaign, 19,700 tonnes below the previous season. The agriculture ministry’s statistical service, Agreste, published the estimate on 23 October, using information collected through late September and fixed as of 1 October. It projects output 13% below 2025–2026 and 17% below the average of the five campaigns from 2021–2022 to 2025–2026. Agreste cautions that the projection still needs refinement because the effects of this summer’s heatwaves on the full campaign are difficult to assess at this point. The headline number is therefore a forecast, not a completed national harvest total.\n\nThe report attributes the expected reduction principally to yields, describing plant growth as slow or halted after successive summer heat episodes. National planted area is forecast at 5,382 hectares, down 2% from the previous campaign and 1% from the five-campaign average. That smaller area contributes to the outlook, but the forecast’s larger percentage decline in production signals that acreage alone does not explain the projected shortfall. Agreste’s basin table shows declines in every surveyed production basin: the north at 21,000 tonnes, 13% lower year on year; the west at 40,800 tonnes, down 15%; the centre-west at 36,600 tonnes, down 14%; and the south-east at 20,200 tonnes, down 8%. Other basins account for 16,200 tonnes. Together, the rounded estimates equal the France total.\n\nSeptember offers a measure of the pressure late-season crops faced. Tonnage harvested that month is expected to be 28% lower than in September 2025, a month when more substantial volumes ordinarily return to the market. Rainfall returned, but Agreste says it was insufficient to make up the water deficit. Losses were greater on plots without access to irrigation, while dry conditions also favored thrips attacks. The report says leeks could be small, require additional trimming or, in some cases, fail commercial standards. These are reported production and quality risks; the source does not quantify how many farms lacked irrigation, the extent of pest damage or how much output was rejected. It expects the production deficit to remain noticeable through the campaign.\n\nSupply constraints coincided with higher producer prices at the end of summer. The report says leek prices in August were 53% above August 2025 and 49% above the five-year August average for 2021–2025. The elevated level carried into September, when the producer-price index was 53% above September 2025 and 55% above the average for September 2022–2026. The first comparison in the publication’s summary appears to use 2026 as its prior-year reference; the detailed text and chart label compare September 2026 with September 2025. This draft follows the detailed period labels and interprets the quoted percentage as a year-on-year comparison. Agreste notes that prices adjusted progressively during September, so the monthly comparison does not mean every day or transaction was at the same premium.\n\nThe campaign’s start had a different balance. May’s relatively wet weather supported the movement of early leek volumes. In June, however, hot temperatures limited consumer interest: average prices for the month were 14% below June 2025 and 17% below the five-year average. In July, limited supply kept prices close to the average of the preceding five campaigns. August then brought a stronger rise as moderate supply met firm demand. The sequence shows why one annual price figure would flatten the market’s changing conditions. Agreste reports monthly producer-price index values on a base of 100 in 2020; these are index comparisons, not absolute prices per kilogram or retail prices. The release supplies a seasonal account but does not identify consumer purchases, individual contracts or margins after production costs.\n\nTrade volumes point to a widening gap in the opening months, but the product definition is broader than leeks alone. From May through August 2026, France exported 3,700 tonnes of leeks and other allium vegetables, 2% less than in the same period of the prior campaign. Imports were 6,900 tonnes, 49% higher. The resulting trade deficit by volume was about 3,200 tonnes, 2,400 tonnes larger year on year. Customs data are used for these comparisons. The figures describe cross-border quantities during four months, not full-year trade, domestic consumption or the amount of French-grown leek available to retailers. Because other alliums are included, they cannot be used as a leek-only import dependency rate.\n\nThe national forecast relies on regional samples of quantitative and qualitative observations. The survey covers six regions, grouped into four climate-based production basins, and represented 79% of French leek output in 2025. The report identifies Nord-Pas-de-Calais for the north, Basse-Normandie and Brittany for the west, Centre and Pays-de-la-Loire for the centre-west, and Rhône-Alpes for the south-east, using the pre-2016 22-region classification. For unobserved regions within a surveyed basin, the service extrapolates from the previous campaign’s Annual Agricultural Statistics; it similarly extrapolates non-surveyed basins to reach an estimate for France outside the overseas departments and regions. The method supports a timely forecast, but the national figure is not a census of each producer or field.\n\nArea accounting also differs from a simple count of unique farmland. Agreste defines the reported hectares as developed area, counting a surface each time it is rotated into and harvested for the crop during a campaign. Comparisons should therefore preserve that convention. The campaign runs from May 2026 to April 2027, and the estimate assumes no unusual event changes the remainder of the season. That assumption matters especially in a report that stresses uncertainty: the service says the summer heatwave’s complete effect remains difficult to evaluate. Later observations could refine the production total, basin distribution and price picture. The October release provides a structured snapshot based on data available by early autumn, while explicitly leaving room for revision rather than presenting 134,700 tonnes as settled fact.\n\nFor growers and buyers, the report’s central finding is a forecast of sustained tighter availability, with several distinct sources of pressure: a 2% reduction in planted area, heat-damaged growth, persistent water deficit, lower September harvest volume and quality problems affecting size and trimming. The market response is visible in producer-price indexes that rose sharply in August and remained elevated in September, even as June prices had been below their earlier-season comparisons. Trade data show more imports and a slightly lower export volume in the campaign’s first four months, but those allium figures should not be conflated with leek-only supply. Agreste’s data do not measure farm profitability, retail pass-through, irrigation investment or the causal contribution of each stressor. The final harvest and later price releases are needed to test the October outlook.\n\nFull Arabic, French, Spanish, German and Portuguese translations and data labels were added.","title":"French leek output forecast down 13% after summer heat, Agreste says","topics":[],"translations":[{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/france-leek-production-forecast-2026-2027?lang=tr","language":"tr","url":"https://newsverum.com/tr/news/france-leek-production-forecast-2026-2027"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/france-leek-production-forecast-2026-2027?lang=en","language":"en","url":"https://newsverum.com/en/news/france-leek-production-forecast-2026-2027"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/france-leek-production-forecast-2026-2027?lang=ar","language":"ar","url":"https://newsverum.com/ar/news/france-leek-production-forecast-2026-2027"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/france-leek-production-forecast-2026-2027?lang=fr","language":"fr","url":"https://newsverum.com/fr/news/france-leek-production-forecast-2026-2027"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/france-leek-production-forecast-2026-2027?lang=es","language":"es","url":"https://newsverum.com/es/news/france-leek-production-forecast-2026-2027"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/france-leek-production-forecast-2026-2027?lang=de","language":"de","url":"https://newsverum.com/de/news/france-leek-production-forecast-2026-2027"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/france-leek-production-forecast-2026-2027?lang=pt","language":"pt","url":"https://newsverum.com/pt/news/france-leek-production-forecast-2026-2027"}],"url":"https://newsverum.com/en/news/france-leek-production-forecast-2026-2027"},"version":"1"}