{"article":{"annotation":{"article_id":"brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026","available_at":"2026-10-07T03:14:13.214334Z","geography_revision":"ef6ee0010dda5fe7b240fd514749b43e214c57da73222d2e40ec83b276dd0977","id":"e7583c0ee663ea889db3a46a0dc47397a9757116f41b3fe0159a8e813bc5ee13","input_sha256":"ccb660f72255ceccddd5076fdd85e2a8afd45ba613a41c1efcbb64200f2a3b03","limitations":["Rule-derived subjects are candidates, not verified editorial labels or calibrated model probabilities.","Coverage is distinct from event location. Unknown country/city/coordinates remain absent; no automatic geocoding.","Article geometries keep their stated precision and methodology; reproducing them is not independent coordinate verification."],"method":"controlled-rules-v1","places":[{"admin1":null,"city":null,"coordinate_note":null,"coordinate_reference_system":"OGC:CRS84","coordinate_source":null,"country":"BR","evidence":[{"field":"country","language":"en","note":"Explicit preserved editorial country/region; no city or national centroid inferred","source_urls":["https://www.gov.br/cemaden/pt-br/assuntos/monitoramento/el-nino/boletim-do-painel-el-nino-ndeg-04-setembro-de-2026-potenciais-impactos-e-orientacoes"]}],"geometry":null,"id":"iso3166-1:BR","kind":"country-or-area","labels":{"ar":"البرازيل","en":"Brazil","es":"Brasil","fr":"Brésil"},"match_status":"candidate","precision":"regional","role":"coverage","uncertainty_m":null}],"rules_sha256":"d28c9c89703b56bd91fd887965d416d0115c2473d4bfbd3e558bcceafc3941dd","schema_version":1,"subjects":[{"concept_id":"medtop:20001129","confidence":null,"confidence_method":null,"evidence":[{"field":"en.title+en.summary","language":"en","note":"Subject suggested from the title or summary: El Niño","source_urls":["https://www.gov.br/cemaden/pt-br/assuntos/monitoramento/el-nino/boletim-do-painel-el-nino-ndeg-04-setembro-de-2026-potenciais-impactos-e-orientacoes"]}],"method":"controlled-rules-v1","rule_id":"weather-phenomena","status":"candidate"},{"concept_id":"medtop:06000000","confidence":null,"confidence_method":null,"evidence":[{"field":"category+topics","language":"en","note":"Preserved editorial category/topic; broad candidate only","source_urls":["https://www.gov.br/cemaden/pt-br/assuntos/monitoramento/el-nino/boletim-do-painel-el-nino-ndeg-04-setembro-de-2026-potenciais-impactos-e-orientacoes"]}],"method":"controlled-rules-v1","rule_id":"climate-broad","status":"candidate"}],"taxonomy_revision":"1f2db31d811fca07e99b16d402c10e2cc2965c9df1c7b41d9be348b40a24e7fb","taxonomy_version":"IPTC Media Topics 2026-Q2"},"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026?lang=fr","category":"climate","content":{"key_points":[],"paragraphs":["Le Panel El Niño brésilien, produit par sept institutions fédérales, a publié son quatrième bulletin mensuel le 1er octobre. Il indique que les anomalies de température de surface du Pacifique dépassaient 2 °C dans le bulletin de la NOAA du 28 septembre et que les modèles envisageaient la persistance du phénomène au moins jusqu’au début de 2027.","Les prévisions saisonnières d’octobre à décembre donnent une probabilité plus élevée de pluies supérieures à la moyenne dans le Sud et certaines zones du Sud-Est, et inférieures dans une grande partie du Nord ainsi que dans des zones du Centre-Ouest et du Nord-Est. Les données partielles de septembre de Cemaden classent aussi 197 municipalités en sécheresse sévère, contre 153 en août. Ce sont des prévisions et classifications de suivi institutionnelles."],"sections":[]},"corrections":[{"at":"2026-10-07T00:48:44+03:00","language":"fr","text":"Des éditions allemande et portugaise, ainsi que les traductions des explications des données et des corrections, ont été ajoutées à cet article."},{"at":"2026-10-07T05:56:59+03:00","language":"fr","text":"Classification des données ajoutée : chaque chiffre porte désormais un identifiant de mesure avec son unité, sa zone géographique, sa fréquence et son type. Aucun chiffre, unité ou date n’a changé."}],"country":"BR","data":{"blocks":[{"description":{"ar":"توقعات الأمطار وتصنيف الجفاف لدى Cemaden.","de":"Niederschlagsausblick des Panels und Dürreklassifizierung von Cemaden.","en":"Panel rainfall outlook and Cemaden drought classification.","es":"Previsión de lluvia y clasificación de sequía de Cemaden.","fr":"Prévisions de pluie et classification de sécheresse de Cemaden.","pt":"Perspectiva de chuva do painel e classificação de seca do Cemaden.","tr":"Panelin bölgesel yağış tahmini ve Cemaden kuraklık sınıflaması."},"id":"brazil-el-nino-figures","items":[{"basis":"observed","label":{"ar":"البلديات ضمن الجفاف الشديد","de":"Gemeinden mit schwerer Dürre","en":"Municipalities in severe drought","es":"Municipios en sequía severa","fr":"Municipalités en sécheresse sévère","pt":"Municípios em seca severa","tr":"Şiddetli kuraklık yaşayan belediyeler"},"measure":{"aggregation":"stock","frequency":"monthly","geography":"brazil","id":"brazil-municipalities-severe-drought","periodRole":"reference-period","unitCode":"count"},"period":"2026-09","unit":"count","value":197},{"basis":"observed","label":{"ar":"بلديات الجفاف الشديد في الشهر السابق","de":"Gemeinden mit schwerer Dürre im Vormonat","en":"Previous-month municipalities in severe drought","es":"Municipios en sequía severa el mes anterior","fr":"Municipalités en sécheresse sévère le mois précédent","pt":"Municípios em seca severa no mês anterior","tr":"Önceki ay şiddetli kuraklık yaşayan belediyeler"},"measure":{"aggregation":"stock","frequency":"monthly","geography":"brazil","id":"brazil-municipalities-severe-drought","periodRole":"reference-period","unitCode":"count"},"period":"2026-08","unit":"count","value":153},{"basis":"forecast","label":{"ar":"احتمال حدث شديد جداً","de":"Wahrscheinlichkeit eines sehr starken Ereignisses","en":"Probability of very strong event","es":"Probabilidad de evento muy fuerte","fr":"Probabilité d’un événement très intense","pt":"Probabilidade de evento muito forte","tr":"Çok güçlü olay olasılığı"},"measure":{"aggregation":"rate","frequency":"irregular","geography":"brazil","id":"brazil-very-strong-el-nino-probability","periodRole":"reference-period","unitCode":"percent"},"period":"2026-10","unit":"%","value":95,"valueQualifier":"lower-bound"}],"methodology":{"ar":"أكثر من 95% هو احتمال النماذج الذي أورده الفريق لحدوث إل نينيو شديد جداً؛ وأعداد البلديات من بيانات Cemaden الجزئية لشهر سبتمبر.","de":"Mehr als 95 % ist die vom Panel angegebene modellierte Wahrscheinlichkeit für ein sehr starkes El-Niño-Ereignis; die Gemeindezahlen stammen aus der teilweisen Überwachung von Cemaden im September.","en":"Above 95% is the panel’s reported modeled probability for a very strong El Niño; municipality counts are from Cemaden’s partial September monitoring.","es":"Más del 95% es la probabilidad modelada citada para un El Niño muy fuerte; el recuento municipal procede del monitoreo parcial de septiembre de Cemaden.","fr":"Plus de 95 % correspond à la probabilité modélisée citée pour un El Niño très intense ; les nombres de municipalités proviennent du suivi partiel de septembre de Cemaden.","pt":"Acima de 95% é a probabilidade modelada informada pelo painel para um El Niño muito forte; os números de municípios vêm do monitoramento parcial de setembro do Cemaden.","tr":"Yüzde 95 üzeri, çok güçlü El Niño için panelin aktardığı model olasılığıdır; belediye sayıları Cemaden’in kısmi Eylül izleme verileridir."},"sourceUrls":["https://www.gov.br/cemaden/pt-br/assuntos/monitoramento/el-nino/boletim-do-painel-el-nino-ndeg-04-setembro-de-2026-potenciais-impactos-e-orientacoes"],"title":{"ar":"مؤشرات لوحة إل نينيو","de":"Indikatoren des El-Niño-Panels","en":"Indicators in the El Niño Panel","es":"Indicadores del Panel El Niño","fr":"Indicateurs du Panel El Niño","pt":"Indicadores do Painel El Niño","tr":"El Niño panelinin göstergeleri"},"type":"metrics","updatedAt":"2026-10-07T00:48:44+03:00"}],"version":1},"data_downloads":[{"formats":{"csv":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026/data/brazil-el-nino-figures?lang=fr&format=csv","json":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026/data/brazil-el-nino-figures?lang=fr&format=json"},"id":"brazil-el-nino-figures"}],"data_types":["metrics"],"editorial_illustration":{"alt":"Illustration conceptuelle de l’atmosphère, des océans et des observations 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conceptuelle de l’atmosphère, des océans et des observations climatiques.","asset_id":"newsverum-v1-climate","avif_variants":[{"height":320,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-480.avif","width":480},{"height":480,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-720.avif","width":720},{"height":640,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-960.avif","width":960},{"height":800,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-1200.avif","width":1200},{"height":1024,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-1536.avif","width":1536}],"credit":"Newsverum","documentary":false,"height":1024,"kind":"symbolic-editorial-illustration","language":"fr","scope":"section","url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-1536.webp","variants":[{"height":320,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-480.webp","width":480},{"height":640,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-960.webp","width":960},{"height":1024,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-1536.webp","width":1536}],"width":1536},"slug":"brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026","sources":[{"checkedAt":"2026-10-06","name":"National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters of Brazil","publishedAt":"2026-10-01","url":"https://www.gov.br/cemaden/pt-br/assuntos/monitoramento/el-nino/boletim-do-painel-el-nino-ndeg-04-setembro-de-2026-potenciais-impactos-e-orientacoes"}],"summary":"Une prévision interinstitutionnelle du 1er octobre indique des pluies supérieures à la moyenne au Sud et inférieures dans une grande partie du centre-nord en octobre–décembre 2026.","text":"Une prévision interinstitutionnelle du 1er octobre indique des pluies supérieures à la moyenne au Sud et inférieures dans une grande partie du centre-nord en octobre–décembre 2026.\n\nLe Panel El Niño brésilien, produit par sept institutions fédérales, a publié son quatrième bulletin mensuel le 1er octobre. Il indique que les anomalies de température de surface du Pacifique dépassaient 2 °C dans le bulletin de la NOAA du 28 septembre et que les modèles envisageaient la persistance du phénomène au moins jusqu’au début de 2027.\n\nLes prévisions saisonnières d’octobre à décembre donnent une probabilité plus élevée de pluies supérieures à la moyenne dans le Sud et certaines zones du Sud-Est, et inférieures dans une grande partie du Nord ainsi que dans des zones du Centre-Ouest et du Nord-Est. Les données partielles de septembre de Cemaden classent aussi 197 municipalités en sécheresse sévère, contre 153 en août. Ce sont des prévisions et classifications de suivi institutionnelles.\n\nDes éditions allemande et portugaise, ainsi que les traductions des explications des données et des corrections, ont été ajoutées à cet article.\n\nClassification des données ajoutée : chaque chiffre porte désormais un identifiant de mesure avec son unité, sa zone géographique, sa fréquence et son type. Aucun chiffre, unité ou date n’a changé.","title":"Les agences brésiliennes prévoient des contrastes régionaux de pluie avec El Niño","topics":[],"translations":[{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026?lang=tr","language":"tr","url":"https://newsverum.com/tr/news/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026?lang=en","language":"en","url":"https://newsverum.com/en/news/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026?lang=ar","language":"ar","url":"https://newsverum.com/ar/news/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026?lang=fr","language":"fr","url":"https://newsverum.com/fr/news/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026?lang=es","language":"es","url":"https://newsverum.com/es/news/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026?lang=de","language":"de","url":"https://newsverum.com/de/news/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026?lang=pt","language":"pt","url":"https://newsverum.com/pt/news/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026"}],"url":"https://newsverum.com/fr/news/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026"},"version":"1"}