{"article":{"annotation":{"article_id":"brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026","available_at":"2026-10-07T03:14:13.214334Z","geography_revision":"ef6ee0010dda5fe7b240fd514749b43e214c57da73222d2e40ec83b276dd0977","id":"e7583c0ee663ea889db3a46a0dc47397a9757116f41b3fe0159a8e813bc5ee13","input_sha256":"ccb660f72255ceccddd5076fdd85e2a8afd45ba613a41c1efcbb64200f2a3b03","limitations":["Rule-derived subjects are candidates, not verified editorial labels or calibrated model probabilities.","Coverage is distinct from event location. Unknown country/city/coordinates remain absent; no automatic geocoding.","Article geometries keep their stated precision and methodology; reproducing them is not independent coordinate verification."],"method":"controlled-rules-v1","places":[{"admin1":null,"city":null,"coordinate_note":null,"coordinate_reference_system":"OGC:CRS84","coordinate_source":null,"country":"BR","evidence":[{"field":"country","language":"en","note":"Explicit preserved editorial country/region; no city or national centroid inferred","source_urls":["https://www.gov.br/cemaden/pt-br/assuntos/monitoramento/el-nino/boletim-do-painel-el-nino-ndeg-04-setembro-de-2026-potenciais-impactos-e-orientacoes"]}],"geometry":null,"id":"iso3166-1:BR","kind":"country-or-area","labels":{"ar":"البرازيل","en":"Brazil","es":"Brasil","fr":"Brésil"},"match_status":"candidate","precision":"regional","role":"coverage","uncertainty_m":null}],"rules_sha256":"d28c9c89703b56bd91fd887965d416d0115c2473d4bfbd3e558bcceafc3941dd","schema_version":1,"subjects":[{"concept_id":"medtop:20001129","confidence":null,"confidence_method":null,"evidence":[{"field":"en.title+en.summary","language":"en","note":"Subject suggested from the title or summary: El Niño","source_urls":["https://www.gov.br/cemaden/pt-br/assuntos/monitoramento/el-nino/boletim-do-painel-el-nino-ndeg-04-setembro-de-2026-potenciais-impactos-e-orientacoes"]}],"method":"controlled-rules-v1","rule_id":"weather-phenomena","status":"candidate"},{"concept_id":"medtop:06000000","confidence":null,"confidence_method":null,"evidence":[{"field":"category+topics","language":"en","note":"Preserved editorial category/topic; broad candidate only","source_urls":["https://www.gov.br/cemaden/pt-br/assuntos/monitoramento/el-nino/boletim-do-painel-el-nino-ndeg-04-setembro-de-2026-potenciais-impactos-e-orientacoes"]}],"method":"controlled-rules-v1","rule_id":"climate-broad","status":"candidate"}],"taxonomy_revision":"1f2db31d811fca07e99b16d402c10e2cc2965c9df1c7b41d9be348b40a24e7fb","taxonomy_version":"IPTC Media Topics 2026-Q2"},"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026?lang=en","category":"climate","content":{"key_points":[],"paragraphs":["Brazil’s El Niño Panel, produced by seven federal institutions, published its fourth monthly bulletin on October 1. It reported that Pacific sea-surface anomalies in NOAA’s September 28 bulletin exceeded 2°C and that models indicated the event could persist at least into early 2027.","The October–December seasonal outlook gives a higher probability of above-average rainfall in the South and parts of the Southeast, and below-average rainfall across much of the North and parts of the Center-West and Northeast. Cemaden’s partial September data also classified 197 municipalities as facing severe drought, up from 153 in August. These are institutional outlooks and monitoring classifications."],"sections":[]},"corrections":[{"at":"2026-10-07T00:48:44+03:00","language":"en","text":"German and Portuguese editions and translations of the data and correction explanations have been added to this article."},{"at":"2026-10-07T05:56:59+03:00","language":"en","text":"Data classification added: each figure now carries a measure identifier with its unit, geography, frequency and type. No figure, unit or date changed."}],"country":"BR","data":{"blocks":[{"description":{"ar":"توقعات الأمطار وتصنيف الجفاف لدى Cemaden.","de":"Niederschlagsausblick des Panels und Dürreklassifizierung von Cemaden.","en":"Panel rainfall outlook and Cemaden drought classification.","es":"Previsión de lluvia y clasificación de sequía de Cemaden.","fr":"Prévisions de pluie et classification de sécheresse de Cemaden.","pt":"Perspectiva de chuva do painel e classificação de seca do Cemaden.","tr":"Panelin bölgesel yağış tahmini ve Cemaden kuraklık sınıflaması."},"id":"brazil-el-nino-figures","items":[{"basis":"observed","label":{"ar":"البلديات ضمن الجفاف الشديد","de":"Gemeinden mit schwerer Dürre","en":"Municipalities in severe drought","es":"Municipios en sequía severa","fr":"Municipalités en sécheresse sévère","pt":"Municípios em seca severa","tr":"Şiddetli kuraklık yaşayan belediyeler"},"measure":{"aggregation":"stock","frequency":"monthly","geography":"brazil","id":"brazil-municipalities-severe-drought","periodRole":"reference-period","unitCode":"count"},"period":"2026-09","unit":"count","value":197},{"basis":"observed","label":{"ar":"بلديات الجفاف الشديد في الشهر السابق","de":"Gemeinden mit schwerer Dürre im Vormonat","en":"Previous-month municipalities in severe drought","es":"Municipios en sequía severa el mes anterior","fr":"Municipalités en sécheresse sévère le mois précédent","pt":"Municípios em seca severa no mês anterior","tr":"Önceki ay şiddetli kuraklık yaşayan belediyeler"},"measure":{"aggregation":"stock","frequency":"monthly","geography":"brazil","id":"brazil-municipalities-severe-drought","periodRole":"reference-period","unitCode":"count"},"period":"2026-08","unit":"count","value":153},{"basis":"forecast","label":{"ar":"احتمال حدث شديد جداً","de":"Wahrscheinlichkeit eines sehr starken Ereignisses","en":"Probability of very strong event","es":"Probabilidad de evento muy fuerte","fr":"Probabilité d’un événement très intense","pt":"Probabilidade de evento muito forte","tr":"Çok güçlü olay olasılığı"},"measure":{"aggregation":"rate","frequency":"irregular","geography":"brazil","id":"brazil-very-strong-el-nino-probability","periodRole":"reference-period","unitCode":"percent"},"period":"2026-10","unit":"%","value":95,"valueQualifier":"lower-bound"}],"methodology":{"ar":"أكثر من 95% هو احتمال النماذج الذي أورده الفريق لحدوث إل نينيو شديد جداً؛ وأعداد البلديات من بيانات Cemaden الجزئية لشهر سبتمبر.","de":"Mehr als 95 % ist die vom Panel angegebene modellierte Wahrscheinlichkeit für ein sehr starkes El-Niño-Ereignis; die Gemeindezahlen stammen aus der teilweisen Überwachung von Cemaden im September.","en":"Above 95% is the panel’s reported modeled probability for a very strong El Niño; municipality counts are from Cemaden’s partial September monitoring.","es":"Más del 95% es la probabilidad modelada citada para un El Niño muy fuerte; el recuento municipal procede del monitoreo parcial de septiembre de Cemaden.","fr":"Plus de 95 % correspond à la probabilité modélisée citée pour un El Niño très intense ; les nombres de municipalités proviennent du suivi partiel de septembre de Cemaden.","pt":"Acima de 95% é a probabilidade modelada informada pelo painel para um El Niño muito forte; os números de municípios vêm do monitoramento parcial de setembro do Cemaden.","tr":"Yüzde 95 üzeri, çok güçlü El Niño için panelin aktardığı model olasılığıdır; belediye sayıları Cemaden’in kısmi Eylül izleme verileridir."},"sourceUrls":["https://www.gov.br/cemaden/pt-br/assuntos/monitoramento/el-nino/boletim-do-painel-el-nino-ndeg-04-setembro-de-2026-potenciais-impactos-e-orientacoes"],"title":{"ar":"مؤشرات لوحة إل نينيو","de":"Indikatoren des El-Niño-Panels","en":"Indicators in the El Niño Panel","es":"Indicadores del Panel El Niño","fr":"Indicateurs du Panel El Niño","pt":"Indicadores do Painel El Niño","tr":"El Niño panelinin göstergeleri"},"type":"metrics","updatedAt":"2026-10-07T00:48:44+03:00"}],"version":1},"data_downloads":[{"formats":{"csv":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026/data/brazil-el-nino-figures?lang=en&format=csv","json":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026/data/brazil-el-nino-figures?lang=en&format=json"},"id":"brazil-el-nino-figures"}],"data_types":["metrics"],"editorial_illustration":{"alt":"Conceptual illustration of the atmosphere, oceans and climate 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illustration of the atmosphere, oceans and climate observations.","asset_id":"newsverum-v1-climate","avif_variants":[{"height":320,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-480.avif","width":480},{"height":480,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-720.avif","width":720},{"height":640,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-960.avif","width":960},{"height":800,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-1200.avif","width":1200},{"height":1024,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-1536.avif","width":1536}],"credit":"Newsverum","documentary":false,"height":1024,"kind":"symbolic-editorial-illustration","language":"en","scope":"section","url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-1536.webp","variants":[{"height":320,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-480.webp","width":480},{"height":640,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-960.webp","width":960},{"height":1024,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-1536.webp","width":1536}],"width":1536},"slug":"brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026","sources":[{"checkedAt":"2026-10-06","name":"National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters of Brazil","publishedAt":"2026-10-01","url":"https://www.gov.br/cemaden/pt-br/assuntos/monitoramento/el-nino/boletim-do-painel-el-nino-ndeg-04-setembro-de-2026-potenciais-impactos-e-orientacoes"}],"summary":"A multi-agency outlook dated October 1 points to above-average rainfall in the South and below-average rainfall across much of north-central Brazil in October–December 2026.","text":"A multi-agency outlook dated October 1 points to above-average rainfall in the South and below-average rainfall across much of north-central Brazil in October–December 2026.\n\nBrazil’s El Niño Panel, produced by seven federal institutions, published its fourth monthly bulletin on October 1. It reported that Pacific sea-surface anomalies in NOAA’s September 28 bulletin exceeded 2°C and that models indicated the event could persist at least into early 2027.\n\nThe October–December seasonal outlook gives a higher probability of above-average rainfall in the South and parts of the Southeast, and below-average rainfall across much of the North and parts of the Center-West and Northeast. Cemaden’s partial September data also classified 197 municipalities as facing severe drought, up from 153 in August. These are institutional outlooks and monitoring classifications.\n\nGerman and Portuguese editions and translations of the data and correction explanations have been added to this article.\n\nData classification added: each figure now carries a measure identifier with its unit, geography, frequency and type. No figure, unit or date changed.","title":"Brazil agencies project contrasting regional rainfall under El Niño","topics":[],"translations":[{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026?lang=tr","language":"tr","url":"https://newsverum.com/tr/news/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026?lang=en","language":"en","url":"https://newsverum.com/en/news/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026?lang=ar","language":"ar","url":"https://newsverum.com/ar/news/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026?lang=fr","language":"fr","url":"https://newsverum.com/fr/news/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026?lang=es","language":"es","url":"https://newsverum.com/es/news/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026?lang=de","language":"de","url":"https://newsverum.com/de/news/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026?lang=pt","language":"pt","url":"https://newsverum.com/pt/news/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026"}],"url":"https://newsverum.com/en/news/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026"},"version":"1"}