{"article":{"annotation":{"article_id":"brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026","available_at":"2026-10-07T03:14:13.214334Z","geography_revision":"ef6ee0010dda5fe7b240fd514749b43e214c57da73222d2e40ec83b276dd0977","id":"e7583c0ee663ea889db3a46a0dc47397a9757116f41b3fe0159a8e813bc5ee13","input_sha256":"ccb660f72255ceccddd5076fdd85e2a8afd45ba613a41c1efcbb64200f2a3b03","limitations":["Rule-derived subjects are candidates, not verified editorial labels or calibrated model probabilities.","Coverage is distinct from event location. Unknown country/city/coordinates remain absent; no automatic geocoding.","Article geometries keep their stated precision and methodology; reproducing them is not independent coordinate verification."],"method":"controlled-rules-v1","places":[{"admin1":null,"city":null,"coordinate_note":null,"coordinate_reference_system":"OGC:CRS84","coordinate_source":null,"country":"BR","evidence":[{"field":"country","language":"en","note":"Explicit preserved editorial country/region; no city or national centroid inferred","source_urls":["https://www.gov.br/cemaden/pt-br/assuntos/monitoramento/el-nino/boletim-do-painel-el-nino-ndeg-04-setembro-de-2026-potenciais-impactos-e-orientacoes"]}],"geometry":null,"id":"iso3166-1:BR","kind":"country-or-area","labels":{"ar":"البرازيل","en":"Brazil","es":"Brasil","fr":"Brésil"},"match_status":"candidate","precision":"regional","role":"coverage","uncertainty_m":null}],"rules_sha256":"d28c9c89703b56bd91fd887965d416d0115c2473d4bfbd3e558bcceafc3941dd","schema_version":1,"subjects":[{"concept_id":"medtop:20001129","confidence":null,"confidence_method":null,"evidence":[{"field":"en.title+en.summary","language":"en","note":"Subject suggested from the title or summary: El 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2026-Q2"},"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026?lang=ar","category":"climate","content":{"key_points":[],"paragraphs":["نشر فريق إل نينيو البرازيلي، الذي يضم سبع مؤسسات اتحادية، نشرته الشهرية الرابعة في 1 أكتوبر. وأفاد بأن شذوذ حرارة سطح البحر في المحيط الهادئ تجاوز درجتين مئويتين في نشرة NOAA بتاريخ 28 سبتمبر، وأن النماذج أشارت إلى احتمال استمرار الظاهرة حتى مطلع 2027 على الأقل.","ترجح التوقعات الموسمية للفترة من أكتوبر إلى ديسمبر أمطاراً فوق المتوسط في الجنوب وأجزاء من الجنوب الشرقي، ودون المتوسط في معظم الشمال وأجزاء من الوسط الغربي والشمال الشرقي. كما صنفت بيانات Cemaden الجزئية لشهر سبتمبر 197 بلدية ضمن الجفاف الشديد، مقابل 153 في أغسطس. وهذه توقعات وتصنيفات رصد مؤسسية."],"sections":[]},"corrections":[{"at":"2026-10-07T00:48:44+03:00","language":"ar","text":"أُضيفت إلى هذا المقال نسختان بالألمانية والبرتغالية، مع ترجمة شروح البيانات والتصحيحات إلى هاتين اللغتين."},{"at":"2026-10-07T05:56:59+03:00","language":"ar","text":"أُضيف تصنيف للبيانات: يحمل كل رقم الآن معرّف قياس بوحدته ونطاقه الجغرافي وتواتره ونوعه. لم يتغير أي رقم أو وحدة أو تاريخ."}],"country":"BR","data":{"blocks":[{"description":{"ar":"توقعات الأمطار وتصنيف الجفاف لدى Cemaden.","de":"Niederschlagsausblick des Panels und Dürreklassifizierung von Cemaden.","en":"Panel rainfall outlook and Cemaden drought classification.","es":"Previsión de lluvia y clasificación de sequía de Cemaden.","fr":"Prévisions de pluie et classification de sécheresse de Cemaden.","pt":"Perspectiva de chuva do painel e classificação de seca do Cemaden.","tr":"Panelin bölgesel yağış tahmini ve Cemaden kuraklık sınıflaması."},"id":"brazil-el-nino-figures","items":[{"basis":"observed","label":{"ar":"البلديات ضمن الجفاف الشديد","de":"Gemeinden mit schwerer Dürre","en":"Municipalities in severe drought","es":"Municipios en sequía severa","fr":"Municipalités en sécheresse sévère","pt":"Municípios em seca severa","tr":"Şiddetli kuraklık yaşayan belediyeler"},"measure":{"aggregation":"stock","frequency":"monthly","geography":"brazil","id":"brazil-municipalities-severe-drought","periodRole":"reference-period","unitCode":"count"},"period":"2026-09","unit":"count","value":197},{"basis":"observed","label":{"ar":"بلديات الجفاف الشديد في الشهر السابق","de":"Gemeinden mit schwerer Dürre im Vormonat","en":"Previous-month municipalities in severe drought","es":"Municipios en sequía severa el mes anterior","fr":"Municipalités en sécheresse sévère le mois précédent","pt":"Municípios em seca severa no mês anterior","tr":"Önceki ay şiddetli kuraklık yaşayan belediyeler"},"measure":{"aggregation":"stock","frequency":"monthly","geography":"brazil","id":"brazil-municipalities-severe-drought","periodRole":"reference-period","unitCode":"count"},"period":"2026-08","unit":"count","value":153},{"basis":"forecast","label":{"ar":"احتمال حدث شديد جداً","de":"Wahrscheinlichkeit eines sehr starken Ereignisses","en":"Probability of very strong event","es":"Probabilidad de evento muy fuerte","fr":"Probabilité d’un événement très intense","pt":"Probabilidade de evento muito forte","tr":"Çok güçlü olay olasılığı"},"measure":{"aggregation":"rate","frequency":"irregular","geography":"brazil","id":"brazil-very-strong-el-nino-probability","periodRole":"reference-period","unitCode":"percent"},"period":"2026-10","unit":"%","value":95,"valueQualifier":"lower-bound"}],"methodology":{"ar":"أكثر من 95% هو احتمال النماذج الذي أورده الفريق لحدوث إل نينيو شديد جداً؛ وأعداد البلديات من بيانات Cemaden الجزئية لشهر سبتمبر.","de":"Mehr als 95 % ist die vom Panel angegebene modellierte Wahrscheinlichkeit für ein sehr starkes El-Niño-Ereignis; die Gemeindezahlen stammen aus der teilweisen Überwachung von Cemaden im September.","en":"Above 95% is the panel’s reported modeled probability for a very strong El Niño; municipality counts are from Cemaden’s partial September monitoring.","es":"Más del 95% es la probabilidad modelada citada para un El Niño muy fuerte; el recuento municipal procede del monitoreo parcial de septiembre de Cemaden.","fr":"Plus de 95 % correspond à la probabilité modélisée citée pour un El Niño très intense ; les nombres de municipalités proviennent du suivi partiel de septembre de Cemaden.","pt":"Acima de 95% é a probabilidade modelada informada pelo painel para um El Niño muito forte; os números de municípios vêm do monitoramento parcial de setembro do Cemaden.","tr":"Yüzde 95 üzeri, çok güçlü El Niño için panelin aktardığı model olasılığıdır; belediye sayıları Cemaden’in kısmi Eylül izleme verileridir."},"sourceUrls":["https://www.gov.br/cemaden/pt-br/assuntos/monitoramento/el-nino/boletim-do-painel-el-nino-ndeg-04-setembro-de-2026-potenciais-impactos-e-orientacoes"],"title":{"ar":"مؤشرات لوحة إل نينيو","de":"Indikatoren des El-Niño-Panels","en":"Indicators in the El Niño Panel","es":"Indicadores del Panel El Niño","fr":"Indicateurs du Panel El Niño","pt":"Indicadores do Painel El Niño","tr":"El Niño panelinin göstergeleri"},"type":"metrics","updatedAt":"2026-10-07T00:48:44+03:00"}],"version":1},"data_downloads":[{"formats":{"csv":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026/data/brazil-el-nino-figures?lang=ar&format=csv","json":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026/data/brazil-el-nino-figures?lang=ar&format=json"},"id":"brazil-el-nino-figures"}],"data_types":["metrics"],"editorial_illustration":{"alt":"رسم توضيحي مفاهيمي للغلاف الجوي والمحيطات ورصد 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توضيحي مفاهيمي للغلاف الجوي والمحيطات ورصد المناخ.","asset_id":"newsverum-v1-climate","avif_variants":[{"height":320,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-480.avif","width":480},{"height":480,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-720.avif","width":720},{"height":640,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-960.avif","width":960},{"height":800,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-1200.avif","width":1200},{"height":1024,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-1536.avif","width":1536}],"credit":"Newsverum","documentary":false,"height":1024,"kind":"symbolic-editorial-illustration","language":"ar","scope":"section","url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-1536.webp","variants":[{"height":320,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-480.webp","width":480},{"height":640,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-960.webp","width":960},{"height":1024,"url":"https://newsverum.com/assets/newsverum/illustrations/v1/climate-1536.webp","width":1536}],"width":1536},"slug":"brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026","sources":[{"checkedAt":"2026-10-06","name":"National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters of Brazil","publishedAt":"2026-10-01","url":"https://www.gov.br/cemaden/pt-br/assuntos/monitoramento/el-nino/boletim-do-painel-el-nino-ndeg-04-setembro-de-2026-potenciais-impactos-e-orientacoes"}],"summary":"تشير توقعات 1 أكتوبر إلى أمطار فوق المتوسط في الجنوب ودون المتوسط في معظم شمال ووسط البرازيل خلال الربع الأخير من 2026.","text":"تشير توقعات 1 أكتوبر إلى أمطار فوق المتوسط في الجنوب ودون المتوسط في معظم شمال ووسط البرازيل خلال الربع الأخير من 2026.\n\nنشر فريق إل نينيو البرازيلي، الذي يضم سبع مؤسسات اتحادية، نشرته الشهرية الرابعة في 1 أكتوبر. وأفاد بأن شذوذ حرارة سطح البحر في المحيط الهادئ تجاوز درجتين مئويتين في نشرة NOAA بتاريخ 28 سبتمبر، وأن النماذج أشارت إلى احتمال استمرار الظاهرة حتى مطلع 2027 على الأقل.\n\nترجح التوقعات الموسمية للفترة من أكتوبر إلى ديسمبر أمطاراً فوق المتوسط في الجنوب وأجزاء من الجنوب الشرقي، ودون المتوسط في معظم الشمال وأجزاء من الوسط الغربي والشمال الشرقي. كما صنفت بيانات Cemaden الجزئية لشهر سبتمبر 197 بلدية ضمن الجفاف الشديد، مقابل 153 في أغسطس. وهذه توقعات وتصنيفات رصد مؤسسية.\n\nأُضيفت إلى هذا المقال نسختان بالألمانية والبرتغالية، مع ترجمة شروح البيانات والتصحيحات إلى هاتين اللغتين.\n\nأُضيف تصنيف للبيانات: يحمل كل رقم الآن معرّف قياس بوحدته ونطاقه الجغرافي وتواتره ونوعه. لم يتغير أي رقم أو وحدة أو تاريخ.","title":"وكالات برازيلية تتوقع تفاوت الأمطار إقليمياً مع ظاهرة إل نينيو","topics":[],"translations":[{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026?lang=tr","language":"tr","url":"https://newsverum.com/tr/news/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026?lang=en","language":"en","url":"https://newsverum.com/en/news/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026?lang=ar","language":"ar","url":"https://newsverum.com/ar/news/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026?lang=fr","language":"fr","url":"https://newsverum.com/fr/news/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026?lang=es","language":"es","url":"https://newsverum.com/es/news/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026?lang=de","language":"de","url":"https://newsverum.com/de/news/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026"},{"api_url":"https://newsverum.com/api/v1/articles/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026?lang=pt","language":"pt","url":"https://newsverum.com/pt/news/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026"}],"url":"https://newsverum.com/ar/news/brazil-el-nino-october-december-climate-outlook-2026"},"version":"1"}